Traditionally speaking, the Tul Karem sector was not considered among the most hostile sectors of Judea and Samaria, particularly not when compared with hornets’ nests such as Jenin or Nablus. However, during the years of the Gaza War, we have been witnessing a shift of the fulcrum of terror in Judea and Samaria wherein Tul Karem is becoming a rising hotbed of terror that is extremely challenging for Israel’s security forces.
Almost on a weekly basis, videos are posted to the Telegram app, showing young armed Palestinians, faces covered, firing their weapons in the direction of the Jewish communities of the Hefer Vally on the other side of the Green Line.
In response, Israeli security forces conducted counter-terror activity in Tul Karem, detaining many terrorists and eliminating terror squads. Out of the 600 terrorists eliminated in the Judea and Samaria area since the start of the Gaza War, 125 were from Tul Karem alone. On August 2024 the Israeli security forces launched Operation Summer Camps in northern Judea and Samaria, which targeted terror cells in Jenin, Tul Karem and the Nur a-Shams refugee camp. To date, the ongoing operation has resulted in the capturing of a copious amount of ready-to-use IEDs, the elimination of senior terror operatives and the seizure of large amounts of arms and ammunition.
Despite the security forces’ frequent counter-terror activity in Tul Karem, the terrorists continue expanding their ranks, stepping up their terror activity and sowing fear in the hearts of the communities in the Sharon district and central Israel, with a slew of threat assessment and scenario projections which are reminiscent of the picture on the Gaza border right before the October 7 massacre.
How had Tul Karem become an incendiary terror hotbed?
The October 7 massacre has become a source of inspiration for terrorists and terror organizations in Israel and the world, and accordingly Tul Karen had also taken a page out of the Hamas’ book of terror and the city and its environ refugee camps have become seething hotbeds of terror.
The geographic location of Tul Karen poses a grave threat to the communities of the Sharon region, most of all to the Bat Hefer community, which is located only a few dozens of meters away. To give one example: the residents of Emek Hefer have been reporting that they have been hearing sounds of digging under their houses for quite a while. And more – there have been numerous incidents of armed men firing automatic rifles from the direction of Tul Karem toward Bat Hefer and other Jewish communities across the Green Line. In 2024, two terror attacks against IDF soldiers were committed in that area, claiming the lives of a soldier and an officer.
The new terror groups that the area has been breeding draw members predominantly from young terrorists from Tul Karam, the Nur a-Shams refugee camp, Qalqilya and Tubas. These terrorists were weaned on the vehement antisemitic and anti-Israel incitement of the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Judea and Samaria, and they certainly perceive the October 7 attack as inspiration for more of the same attacks.
From Bat Hefer to Tehran: The Iranian connection
The multiplying terror operatives in Judea and Samaria enjoy the support of various types from Iran and its proxies – namely Hamas and the PIJ.
In mid-May 2024, a proxy terror conference was held in Tehran, in which the Iranian and the representatives of their proxies agreed to aim for further escalation vis a vis Israel, as a means for pressuring it into ending the Gaza War, not by means of diplomacy and negotiations for an agreement for the release of the hostages. It is plausible that the firing incidences toward the Bat Hefer community are part of that stratagem.
Iran and its proxies support the terror organizations that operate in Judea and Samaria, particularly those from the Tul Karem area. This support is in the form of financing, smuggling of arms and ammunition, and knowledge-sharing. The numerous shipments of smuggled arms Israel has been apprehending lately in the Judea and Samaria region teaches that Iran is actively swamping the area with weapons and ammunition. Most of these weapons come, most probably, through Jordan and are smuggled successfully into Judea and Samaria due to inadequate border security – both on the Israeli side and the Jordanian side.
It is important to understand that the Iranians, like many other players in the Middle East, view the October 7 attack an achievement that marks the beginning of the end for the Jewish state. The heinous massacre has galvanized them, Hamas and the rest of the “resistance axis” members to plan and attempt more such attacks. This time, believe these terror elements, the attack will come from the Judea and Samaria region, aimed at the soft underbelly of Israel – the Sharon region and the center of the country.
This notion might be an item on Iran’s “unification of the arenas” agenda. The person captaining this strategy is member of Hamas political bureau Zaher Al-Jabarin, who last May hinted “Hamas still has many cards up its sleeve that have not been use yet. Al-Jabarin added that “the West Bank will surprise the enemy sometime soon, and we shall see new chapters in the Palestinian military creativity”.
How do we prevent an October 7 in the Sharon region?
The current reality in Judea and Samaria, where terror organizations are engaged in establishing armed militias and fomenting another active front in the heart of Israel, is unacceptable. Therefore this threat on part of the terror nests from within Arab Judea and Samaria towns and refugee camps, must be eradicated, the area must be demilitarized and cleansed of weapons and ammunition.
To do so, Israel must first drive a wedge among the militias, and fragment their military unity with the entire body of terror organizations, especially in northern Samaria. Additionally, Israel must adopt a change of paradigm and depart from the common conception that the Hamas and Jihad terror organizations are fundamentally different then the FATAH-aligned terror organizations, such as the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Furthermore, Israel must exact a price from the Palestinian Authority and publicly proclaim the Authority responsible for every and any act of terror coming from Judea and Samaria. In addition, Israel must step up its counter-terror activity and begin planning a broad military campaign to paralyze and eradicate the terror infrastructure that is developing in the region.
Alongside the abovementioned remedies, Israel must boost its forces along the Jordanian border to restore its control over the area and consolidate its supervision and control along that border in order to stem the illegal flow of firearms and other weapons from Jordan into Israel, while at the same time demanding the Jordanians to take measures on its part to seal the border for illegal smuggling on the Jordanian side as well.
There are many who claim that now is not the time to open a new front while the war in Gaza is in full swing, to avoid a multi-theater campaign. However, such opinions fail to understand that Israel is already in the throes of a multi-theater war, and without a well-structured strategy to fight the pernicious terror of Judea and Samaria, that violence will continue claiming victims among the Jewish people living in that region as well as inevitably – in the Sharon area and in the very heart of Israel, becoming a shroud of danger covering the entire country and placing all of its citizens in peril.
