Nuclear Iran: an Existential Threat to the Zionist Enterprise

Why a placebo agreement with Iran cannot prevent war but facilitates it l why diplomacy cannot substitute credible military threat l and how Iran’s real map reflects the regime’s “strategic depth” policy

 

 

The Iranian regime invests considerable resources and budgets in developing military nuclear capabilities, a tiebreaker weapon that could give Iran a twofold advantage: on the one hand, a powerful deterrent – an “insurance policy” of sorts – in the form of a nuclear umbrella over Iranian and pro-Iranian forces that are gradually making inroads into large parts of the region, to bring into existence its vision of a Middle East that is a sphere of influence controlled by Shiite Iran, and on the other hand – an offensive instrument that could pose a supreme existential threat to the State of Israel as an instrument in Iran’s designs to annihilate it.

A nuclear program is more than just an armaments program – it is a status symbol for a country that joins a “prestigious” and limited “club” of nuclear states. A military nuclear program is the jewel in the crown of Iran’s efforts to achieve superpower status such that will further fuel the regime’s revolution export machine and further consolidate its status and power, including domestically to cement its control over the Iranian people. Nuclear weapons are not only an end goal but also a means to achieve the regime’s strategic objectives.

Israel cannot – under any circumstances whatsoever – accept a scenario in which Iran is a state in possession of nuclear weapons. The State of Israel is now at a decisive stage, in view of the acceleration of the Iranian military nuclear program, the repercussion of which is the contraction of the breakout range from Iran obtaining enough fissile material for its first nuclear explosive device. To date, Iran has enough 60% enriched uranium to cut the threshold divide to zero breakout time, meaning that from the moment the regime gives the order, Iran would need a mere two to three weeks until it enriches enough 90% enriched uranium to manufacture its first nuclear weapon. Furthermore, in the event that it decides to make a dash to nuclear weapons, Iran could use its remaining 20% and 4.5% enriched uranium to manufacture 4 nuclear warheads within less than 3 months. In addition, Iran is conducting advanced research and development of implosion type weapons and of equipping surface-to-surface missiles with nuclear warheads.

 

This is the number one threat to the Zionist enterprise today.

Based on our projections, a return to the 2015 agreement (JCPOA) might lead to a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran withing a year or two:

  • The staggering capital that will be available to Iran as a result of the agreement could allow the regime to fast track the force buildup of its regional partners that pose a threat to Israel
  • Iran will enjoy the unrestricted freedom to accelerate the development of its missile and UCAV technology.
  • The agreement will signify Iran’s success in forcing the US’s hand, further boosting its status in the Middle East.
  • Such an agreement is tantamount to a thumbs-up to Iran to upgrade its centrifuge plants with more advanced models, enabling it to achieve high-grade uranium enrichment due to the expiration of critical sunset clauses – and the agreement itself – in 2031.
  • The agreement denies the IAEA the means with which to effectively supervise Iran’s nuclear activity, while Iran continues to withhold information regarding suspected sites believed to be part of the Iranian nuclear program, discovered in the Iranian Nuclear Archive obtained by the Mossad.
  • Furthermore, such an agreement – or Iran’s attempt to achieve nuclear capabilities without one – might encourage other countries in the region to follow suit and strive toward nuclear abilities, posing a detrimental threat to Israel’s military supremacy in the region.
  • Throughout the talks between Iran and the US, it was more than evident that the Biden administration is endeavoring to reinstate the nuclear agreement at any cost, including the complete withdrawal of basic demands that were put in place to prevent Iran from attaining short breakout times.

For all the above-mentioned reasons, a nuclear agreement would merely accelerate a scenario of a regional war rather than counteract it. As a result of this eventuality, and with no real agreement with binding jurisdiction such that imposes inexorable supervision mechanisms, sets open ended objectives that are not time limited and stipulates sanction snapbacks in response to violations – it is left to Israel’s political ranks to charge the military ranks with the objective of system-wide readiness for an independent offensive operation against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Israel must pose a credible military threat for Iran that its strategical value against Iran’s nuclear program  outweighs any agreement that aim to buy time or to turn a blind eye to Iran’s activities. At the same time, however, Israel must strive to unite with Jordan, Egypt and the Abraham Accords states as well as with the pragmatic Arab axis, around their common interests, to forge a regional coalition of aligned countries that can act as an effective strategic bloc counterposing Iran’s nuclear scheme.

As effective is it may be, Israel’s military campaign between the wars (CBW) cannot completely prevent Iran from reinforcing its allies and tightening its grasp on the region – especially in Syria. Israel does not operate on the Iranian playfield in many aspects,  and this compromise its full military superiority in the region and might prove to be a real threat to its national security.

On a regional level, the “Iranian Octopus” is extending its tentacles in a bid to bring the region into its clutches. It does so by destabilizing its neighboring countries and building up its proxies in the area, notably Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Houthis in Yemen, and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, aiming to attain Iranian strategic depth and place nooses around Israel. This network of pressure fulcrums surrounding Israel is armed with a substantial military infrastructure of missiles, rockets and UAVs designed to deliver a fatal blow to Israel’s home front and is thus another variable in the equation of threat against Israel.

This document presents a comprehensive and exhaustive strategic assessment, by IDSF military researchers and former high ranking military commanders of the Iranian nuclear program and the threat it poses to the very existence of the State of Israel. It includes the following chapters:

  • Introduction to the Iranian nuclear program, its underpinning rationale and its current situation
  • Review of the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA): the West’s eagerness to attain a diplomatic achievement produced an agreement that was ineffective and inadequate, which ultimately paves the way for Iran to becoming a nuclear-weapon state (NWP) with full international legitimization, while at the same time enjoying economic prosperity
  • Review of the West’s appeasement and containment policy that is in contradiction to Israel’s defence doctrine, which relies on a foiling and credible threat approach
  • Three tables illustrating:
    • The main drawbacks the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement poses for Israel
    • Iran’s violations of the agreement in 2016-2018 – prior to the Trump administration’s end of term, debunking allegations that the administration withdrew from the agreement despite Iran’s compliance
    • The central points of contention regarding the reinstation of the agreement at present
  • Iran’s real map – the regime’s “strategic depth” policy
  • Iran’s conventional arms threat to Israel – long-range missiles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs)

IDSF-Habithonistim’s recommendations for tackling Iran’s nuclear program, from a viewpoint of a regional operative-offensive strategic deterrent