Situation Report | “Rising Lions” – The Israel-Iran War

Day 4 | Updated June 16th, 2025 14:00PM (Israeli Standard Time GMT+3)

Operational Clock War: Starting +83Hrs.

2nd report issued at +55Hrs.

For real-time updates click here

 

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

June 16th:

  • Air strikes targeting IRGC Quds Force sites in Tehran.
  • Air strikes targeting sites:
    • Kermanshah, a major missile storage and deployment facility.
    • Natanz nuclear facility operating nearly 1000 advanced centrifuges enriching up to 60% purity (located near to Isfahan).
    • Parchin, Nuclear weapons research facility.
    • Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, a highly fortified and deeply buried uranium enrichment site near the city of Qom.

June 15th:

  • An aerial attack in the airport in Mashad targeting the airport itself and a Boeing 747 tanker. Mashad is located around 2,300km (~1,430 miles\~1,255NM) from Israel, and is the furthest attack Israel has commenced from Israeli soil.
  • 3 High ranked officials from the intelligence forces were eliminated, among them, the IRGC Intelligence commander and his deputy.

 

Night of June 14th

  • Targeted more than 80 targets (with total of more than 170 targets since the beginning of the war) were hit, including nuclear sites, IRGC headquarters, Iranian Ministry of Defense headquarters, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND)[1] headquarters and the Iranian nuclear archive.
  • IAF attacked in Sanaa, Yemen. The Houthi’s chief of staff, Mohammed Abd al-Karim al-Ghamari was reported to be the target, but his elimination is yet to be confirmed.
  • Senior Officials Eliminated:
    • Gholam-Reza Marhabi: Head of Intelligence Directorate, Iranian Armed Forces
    • Reza Mozaffarinia: Head of SPND
    • Esmail Qaani: Chief commander of IRGC Quds Force
    • Mohammad Kazemi: Chief commander of IRGC Intelligence
    • Hassan Mohaghegh: Deputy chief commander of IRGC Intelligence

 

Iranian Attacks

  • Around 10:00 ballistic missile launched by the Houthis against Israel was successfully intercepted.
  • Night of June 15-16th: In a wave of ballistics missiles, Iran launched more than 60 missiles, with 5 hits. As of now, 8 Israeli citizens have been confirmed as murdered during this wave, more than 200 injured in all 5 scenes.
  • For the first time, Iran reportedly used the Fattah-2, hypersonic missiles. The missile is capable of reaching speeds of 5-20 Mach, using spherical solid-fuel engine. There is no official confirmation of the launching of a hypersonic missile.
  • The American consulate in Tel-Aviv sustained minor damage from the strike and will remain closed.
  • Nights of June 13-14 and 14-15: Iran launched at least 3 waves of ballistic missiles each night targeting Israeli cities killing at least 10 Israelis civilians including children in Bat Yam, of which a Ukrainian family staying in Israel, and 5 members of a single family in Tamra and injuring more than 200 civilians.
    • Iran launched over 60 ballistic missiles targeting Israel.
    • Constant UAV launches throughout the days.
    • Iranian attacks targeted Israeli energy facilities and fuel production sites in the north of Israel. The facilities are still operational.
  • Regional Proxies: Yemen’s Houthis fired ballistic missiles targeting central Israel while at the same time, as an Iranian ballistic attack wave, marking the first public coordination with Iran.

 

Inside Iran

  • Iranian parliament drafting decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  • It is reported by several news outlets that Khamenei is probably hiding in a shelter in Lavizan, Tehran.
  • Iranian authorities captured a man and accused him to be an Israeli spy and was executed to death by hanging.
  • Videos circulating on social media show people chant “death to the dictator”, “death to Khamenei” from residential balconies at night.
  • For the second day in a row, massive traffic is seen on the roads exiting Tehran as citizens evacuating the city as per the advisory notice by the IDF.
  • Tehran Grand Bazaar (market) is closed for business. It is important to understand that Tehran’s market is not just a market, it is a key part of Tehran’s economy and culture.
  • Communist Party of Iran (CPI) calls for a national uprising to overthrow the current regime. In parallel, the CPI is also anti-Israel and U.S.A.
  • Narmak, Tehran: Street gatherings chanting “death to Khamenei” chants.
  • Mohammad Pakpour was appointed as the new IRGC Commander.
  • Pakistan issued an announcement supporting Iran. On June 15th, a large number of containers and trucks spotted carrying military equipment and missiles entered Iran from Pakistan through Baluchistan province.

 

 

Geopolitical Reactions

  • United States: Implicitly approved Israeli operations, but did not approve the elimination of Khamenei himself; President Trump warned Iran to negotiate or face “full strength” U.S. military response. “We are not currently engaged in the war, but may join later”.
  • United Kingdom: Deployed additional jets to the region, signaling potential support for Israel. That, as opposed to the earlier press release that called to “step back and reduce tensions”.
  • Iran:
    • Refuses any negotiations. The Ayatollah regime told Qatar and Oman they would not negotiate until complete retaliation.
    • Threatened to strike U.S., UK, and French bases if they intervene. Nuclear talks with the U.S. mediated by Oman were canceled.
  • Iranian Diaspora: In several cities across Europe and in Australia, Iranian diaspora groups demonstrated with the pre-revolution Iranian flag along side Israeli flags.
  • Pakistan: As of June 16th, afternoon, Pakistan closed all border crossings with Iran.

 

Projections

  • Israel prolongs it state of emergency up to June 30th indicating an approximately two-week long campaign.
  • IDF Spokesperson issued an evacuation notice in Farsi to the citizens in Tehran. The notice became viral in social media but was not published in the Iranian official media channel.
  • Some officials in Israel expect the war to last “weeks, not days” with further strikes on nuclear and military targets.
  • Iranian Response: Likely to escalate ballistic missile attacks and leverage proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah).

 

Assessment: The conflict risks regional spillover, particularly if U.S.\European assets are targeted. Civilian casualties and critical infrastructure damage are mounting, with no near-term de-escalation likely.

 

 

June 16th attacks: Quds force headquarters | Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

People Fleeing Teheran | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

Site hit by Iranian Missile | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

Missiles debris from Iranian missile into Israel | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

[1] The equivalent of DARPA.