IDSF Weekly War Summary #19: February 11-17, 2024

Account of the main events in the Israel-Hamas war and hostilities by the Iranian A

Hostages Fernando Simon Marman and Louis Har were rescued in a spectacular operation conducted by elite IDF, Shin Bet and Police units in the heart of Rafah; the YAMAM combatants who rescued them recounted the operation | Photos: IDF Spokesperson, N12

 

Overview

• In a spectacular operation that included over 1000 special forces, 2 hostages were freed from Hamas captivity in Rafah. This is the first operation which resulted in the release of hostages since the liberation of IDF soldier Ori Megidish.
• Various leaks to favorable reporters in the US suggest the Biden administration could be pushing for a recognition of a Palestinian state in the coming month, under a framework that includes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. These reports were rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who emphasized giving the Palestinians a state would constitute a prize for the October 7 attacks.
• The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrell stepped up his rhetoric and called on the international community to effectively place a weapons embargo on Israel. Meanwhile, UN Under-Secretary-General Martin Griffiths said during an interview that Hamas was not a terrorist organization but a political movement.
• Covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines inside Iran were attributed to Israel.
• The Biden administration has expressed stronger reservations of the looming Israeli operations in Rafah.
• Egypt has toned down its threats against Israel that it would suspend the Israel-Egypt peace agreement if Israel executes its planned operations in Rafah.
• Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed details about the 12 UNRWA workers who participated in the October 7th massacre including video footage of their crimes. The employees included a math teacher, Arabic teacher, social worker, and medical staff.
• Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is blocking a shipment of flour to Gaza which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken would reach Gaza. The shipment is stuck at the Port of Ashdod. US National Security Advisor Andrew Sullivan has said that Israel needs to fulfill its commitments and allow the flour to reach Gaza.
• Ahead of Israel’s planed military advance in Rafah, Gaza-based clan leaders released a joint letter condemning Hamas for stealing aid and killing members of their families and blaming Hamas for the misery of the people of Gaza.
• Hezbollah operatives are training Russian soldiers in Syria to use Iranian made drones for their war against Ukraine. It has also been reported that Hezbollah has been recruiting hundreds of Islamic Jihad fighters from Syria to join the Radwan forces.
• The IDF has begun an operation in the Al Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, the “Al Shifa” of the south. They found weapons and Hamas hideouts inside and under the hospital. During the fight, Hamas terrorists shot at the IDF from the hospital premises. The IDF arrested over 100 terror operatives in the hospital and found medications with the hostages’ names on them, and were clearly never given to them as stipulated in the agreement.
• Hezbollah is stepping up its tactics and started using precision guided missiles in its attacks against Israel for the first time since the start of the war.
• Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Iranian Foreign Minister has been conducting a series of diplomatic visits with other members of the “axis of resistance.” He met terrorist leaders in Beirut, Doha including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani before his visit to Cairo for negotiations with Hamas and Israel.

 

 

International

• Ireland and Spain sent a letter to the EU urging it to ‘urgently’ investigate whether Israel violated human rights and carried out war crimes in Gaza. Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister, the leader of the ‘Hard-Left’ Sumar party, who less than a week after October 7 was warning Europe to pressure Israel to stop Israel from “massacring” Gazans, and who previously suggested Spain should suspend diplomatic ties with Israel announced she would visit Ramallah to meet with her Palestinian counterpart. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, announced that that such a visit is not planned and that his office would not issue permits.
• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi spoke with French President Emanuel Macron and rejected the possibility of Gazan refugees being allowed to flee to safety in the Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry was more measured in his comments at The Munich Security Conference that his country does not want this to happen but if Gazans were to flee into the Sinai, they would deal with it humanely, but ”would not provide any safe areas or facilities.” Shoukry denied that the fortifications that Egypt is building along its border with Gaza are designed to prevent a of a wave of Gazan refugees from fleeing into Egypt and explained that it is merely part of Egypt’s routine border maintenance.
  The Governor of the Sinai suggested that the facilities that are being built are meant to be used for logistical support for aid workers and truck drivers brining aid to Gaza. The Wall Street Journal reported that Egypt has   built a fence around an area of 13 KM² that could house up to 100,000 people because of fears of an Israeli operation in Rafah. Moreover, the Arab clans that are prominent in northern Sinai, have threatened war with Israel if it continues with its planned operation in Rafah.

 

• The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrell stepped up his rhetoric and called on the international community to effectively place a weapons embargo on Israel. He suggested that diplomats typically only talk, and now is the time to take actions and impose upon Israel and the Palestinians a two-state solution. Borrell in a press conference together with UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini said that Israel has been wanting to shut down UNRWA for many years as it thinks it would make the refugee problem disappear. Lazzarini said he does not intend to resign and said he is open to the establishment of an inquiry into UNRWA’s activities, conducted by another organization.

• The UK followed with the lead of President Biden and sanctioned 4 Israelis (some were not on the American list) who, according to reports, were involved in violent acts against Palestinians. Separately, UK Foreign Minister, David Cameron, said that he wants to see assurances that UNRWA would not employ people who want to attack Israel.

• The US Treasury has sanctioned a company related to the Central Bank of Iran and 3 people involved with smuggling US technology to the bank. Additional sanctions were applied on the bank for its financing of Hezbollah and the Quds force.
• For the first time, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand issued a joint statement calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The statement included concern over the Israeli plans of military operations in Rafah.

• The International Court of Justice rejected South Africa’s request to stop the IDF’s operation in Rafah.

• For the first time, French President Macron has said that recognition of a Palestinian state is no longer taboo for France. He suggested that France could recognize a Palestinian State if efforts for a two-state solution fails due to Israeli opposition.

• During an interview to Sky News, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General Martin Griffiths rejected the notion that Hamas was a terrorist organization. Instead, he called it a “political movement”. In response to a question, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator said “If you want to have safety and security with people who are gonna inevitably continue to be your neighbor in some form or another, you are going to have to create a relationship based on some shared values. … Hamas is not a terrorist group for us, of course, as you know. It’s a political movement.” Later he clarified these remarks by pointing out that Hamas was not on the list of groups designated as terrorist organizations by the UN Security Council. Griffiths has harshly criticized Israel in the past and systematically used superlatives to describe Israel’s treatment of the Palestinian population in Gaza while being more even in his criticism toward Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist factions.

 

 

Munich Security Conference

• Israeli President Isaac Herzog displayed a book written by Hamas co-founder and leader, Mahmoud a Zahar found in Gaza by the IDF titled “The End of the Jews”, laying out the genocidal indoctrination Hamas uses on the Gaza population.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz presented evidence outlining the crimes of UNRWA which including their involvement in the October 7^th In addition, he reiterated that Israel does not want to expel Palestinians from Gaza, and called for the resignation of UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini.
• UN Secretary General António Guterres revealed that he carries with him the Israeli ‘dog tags’ that have come to symbolize solidarity with the Israeli fight to release the hostages. He said that he is working with different players to free the hostages, but that the UN is not in contact with Hamas.

 

Israeli Domestic Arena

Thousands of protesters blocked a central Tel Aviv thoroughfare on Saturday, on the same street where anti-government demonstrations riled the nation before the start of the Israel-Hamas war.  These political expressions had been kept in check in deference to the rush of national unity that have swept the country since October 7^th.  Saturday’s demonstrations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were the largest in months demonstrating that some form of the political acrimony that Israel experienced before the war could be beginning to return. The protestors called for the immediate release of the hostages and for the dissolution of the current government and to call for new elections as soon as possible.

 

 

Gaza Strip

Diplomatic

The Biden administration has expressed stronger reservations of the looming Israeli operations in Rafah. At the same time, it appears that Biden’s team has been the most probable source of leaks from conversations about Netanyahu in which Biden allegedly called Netanyahu a “bad f**king guy” and “asshole”. These reports as appeared in the media as Biden is attempting to distance himself from the Israeli leadership to avoid hemorrhaging young progressive voters who are key to the President’s re-election, but disapprove of his Middle East policies. Biden and his aides have been more vocal in recent days about their disagreements with Israeli leadership.

Biden said in a press conference on Friday that he pushed for a long-sustained ceasefire that would have included hostage deal. He also spoke with Netanyahu and asked him to implement a plan of evacuation for Gazans residing in Rafah or avoid the military incursion there altogether.  Netanyahu stopped an Israeli delegation from attending another round of negotiations in Cairo because of Hamas’ unrealistic demands. This reportedly, caused more friction with the Biden administration.

These mounting disagreements have the potential to turn into a real crisis in US-Israel relations, as reports have leaked Biden’s plan to recognize a Palestinian State in the coming months. While this would allow Biden to achieve a political goal for his progressive base, a plan that would unilaterally recognize a Palestinian State would lead to an unprecedented crisis in US-Israeli relations. It would grant Palestinians a state without any measurable steps for the PA or any representative of the Palestinians to forge Palestinian-Israeli peace. Polls in Israel demonstrate that a clear majority of Israelis and reject the formation of a Palestinian State in the aftermath of October 7^th, and would likely lead to the demise of any Israeli government should they acquiesce to such demands.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that talks to reach a cease-fire and hostage-release deal were at an impasse and that his government was pushing ahead with plans for a ground offensive in Rafah, despite mounting international warnings over the possible humanitarian cost.

• The US Senate approved a foreign aid package that included more than $95 billion of which $14 billion in security assistance was dedicated for Israel. The bill seems unlikely to pass the House over issues that do not directly involve Israel but internal American politics.
• The WSJ reports that Israel has received at least 21,000 bombs from the US since the beginning of the war, while the aid package would include thousands of precision guided munitions. According to the reports Israel has enough munitions for 19 more weeks of fighting in Gaza of several days if a war would begin in the north as well.
• Egypt has toned down its threats against Israel that it would suspend the Israeli-Egypt peace agreement if Israel executes its planned operations in Rafah. However, the Egyptians are continuing to threaten that it will downgrade the state of their relationship with Israel if Gaza refugees cross into Sinai. Egypt has been strengthening the border with Gaza along the Philadelphi Corridor and even built several lines of defense against a potential influx of refugees. This included building walls with barbed wire well into Sinai territory in case the border wall with Gaza is breached. They gathered enough workers near southern Gaza to house 100,000 refugees in the worst-case scenario.
• Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed details about the 12 UNRWA workers who participated in the October 7^th massacre including video footage of their crimes. The employees included a math teacher, Arabic teacher, social worker and medical staff. Israeli intelligence found that at least 30 UNRWA workers participated actively in the October 7^th massacre with 1500 of the 13,000 UNRWA employees registered in Hamas, PIJ, Al Aqsa Martyrs brigades and other terrorist groups in Gaza. Gallant said that at least 12% of UNRWA staff are associated with Hamas. According to other estimates over 25% of the work force is associated with terrorist organizations.
• CIA Director William Burns came to Israel in order to try to convince the Israeli leadership to reach a ceasefire and a hostage deal.
• The IDF released footage of Yahya Sinwar fleeing the IDF’s advance in a tunnel during the first days of the war.
• According to a WSJ report, Israel offered the US and Egypt to establish 5 tent cities with 25,000 tents north of Rafah along the coast with a field hospital using gulf country funding and Egyptian control.
• King Abdullah of Jordan met with President Biden to discuss an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of a Palestinian State immediately after the war.
• The IDF spokesperson in Arabic revealed that an Al Jazeera reporter from Gaza, Mohamed Washah, was a Hamas senior commander in the rocket department working in Hamas’s R&D aerial division.
• Minister of Communication Shlomo Karhi gave approval to Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate in Israel. Israel will allow a United Arab Emirates field hospital in the Gaza Strip to use Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service.
• David Satterfield, the U.S. Special Envoy for Humanitarian Aid, said on Friday that Israeli military strikes on Palestinian police officers were hindering the delivery of badly needed humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip.
• Families of the Israeli hostages issued a complaint in the International Criminal Court against Hamas accusing it of acts of murder, rape, torture, kidnapping among other accusations.
• Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is blocking a shipment of flour to Gaza which Prime Minister Netanyahu promised to President Biden and Secretary Blinken would reach Gaza. The shipment is stuck at the Port of Ashdod. US National Security Advisor Sullivan has said that Israel needs to fulfill to its commitments and allow the flour to reach Gaza.
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog secretly met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday to discuss the negotiations aimed at securing the release of the hostages in Gaza.

An Al Jazeera reporter from Gaza, Mohamed Washah, was a Hamas senior commander in the rocket department working in Hamas’s R&D aerial division

Operational

Khan Younis above the ground fell to the IDF.

• In a spectacular operation that included over 1000 special forces, 2 hostages were freed from Hamas captivity in Rafah. This is the first operation which resulted in the release of hostages since the liberation of IDF soldier Ori Megidish.
• The IDF has begun an operation in Al Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, the “Al Shifa” of the south. They found weapons and Hamas hideouts inside and under the hospital. During the fight, Hamas terrorists shot at the IDF from the hospital premises. The IDF arrested over 100 terror operatives in the hospital and found medications with the hostages’ names on them indicating that the hostages did not receive their medications that had been agreed to in the previous negotiations with Hamas. The IDF meanwhile provided the hospital with medicine, food, water, fuel for the hospital generators and even fixed one of the malfunctioning hospital generators.
• The IDF eliminated the new battalion commander of the “Sabra” Brigade who had replaced the previous commander who was eliminated in November.
• The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the Fatah affiliated terror group, shot rockets towards Ashkelon and other cities from northern strip. PIJ also shot rockets in recent days at the Gaza envelope.
• The 646 Paratroopers Brigade reserve unit left Gaza after having taken part in the fighting all over Gaza. This means that in the Khan Younis area there could be only 5 active-duty brigades that are holding the territory.
• According to the Institute for the Study of War ISW, in the past week the average daily attacks by terrorists in northern Gaza fell to 2.7 from 5 in the previous week and there were no attacks from central Gaza. It is believed that Hamas has more weapons and terrorists but its ability to effectively deploy them is being hampered with time.
• After the Israeli operation that successfully released two hostages which included air strikes that according to Gaza/Hamas sources, killed 67 people, a wave Gazans started moving north to the open areas between Rafah and Khan Younis, Al Mouasi, and the beaches south of Dir el Balah.
• According to IDF Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, the Gaza City civilians would not be permitted to return to the city. Moreover, he mentioned that there are over 10,000 Hamas operatives in the Rafah region and there is a need for the civilians to evacuate. He said that the IDF is advancing according to its plans and has even managed to achieve more than it initially expected. The IDF is releasing more reserve troops for “refreshment” but is not discharging them completely as they would likely be needed, according to Halevi for future operations.
• IDF spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, has said earlier this month the IDF has apprehended Sinwar’s family members and senior Hamas officials’ family members.
• Ahead of Israel’s planned military advance in Rafah, Gaza-based clan leaders released a joint letter condemning Hamas for stealing aid and killing members of their families and blaming Hamas for the misery of the people of Gaza. The letter called for a protest titled “We Want To Live”. Rafah is a tribal region stronghold. The main economic driver of the region, the tunnels, are controlled jointly by Hamas and the local clans. In effect, Hamas and the local clans divide up the income generated by the smuggling that goes through these tunnels from Sinai. The clans take part in the smuggling operations, even though they are not members of Hamas, because it is in their economic interest. The clans defiance of Hamas demonstrates that there is a prevailing belief among Palestinians that Hamas’ rule will end soon which is why they could afford to defy Hamas publicly this way. In a separate demonstration over the weekend, protestors cursed Sinwar and the Hamas leadership and called for the end of the war.

 

 

 

 

Operational

Hezbollah is stepping up its tactics and started using precision guided missiles in its attacks against Israel for the first time since the start of the war. Hezbollah has suffered the elimination of many commanders and appears concerned of further intelligence breaches by Israel. In an address to the Lebanese people, Nasrallah asked residents of Southern Lebanon to dispose of their cellular phones. Senior officials in Lebanon are sure that Israel possess technologies to track every individual in Lebanon.

• Two Golani Brigade divisions, 210 and 146 started training for a potential war with Hezbollah participating in a huge military drill simulating fighting in Lebanon during winter conditions and on Lebanese mountainous topography. This drill included different units, including artillery, engineering, armored corps and infantry troops.
• Hezbollah shot a barrage of rockets towards the city of Safed hitting the Northern Command base which killed a soldier and injured 8 others. The Iron Dome was not activated to intercept the rocket. The Israeli Airforce retaliated by shooting down Hezbollah targets in 5 different districts resulting in the death of 11 according to local reports.
• Hezbollah shot an anti-tank missile at Kiryat Shmona injuring a teen and his mom.
• ISW reports that Hezbollah operatives are training Russian soldiers in Syria to use Iranian made drones for their war against Ukraine. It has also been reported that Hezbollah has been recruiting hundreds of Islamic Jihad fighters from Syria to join the Radwan forces.

Diplomatic

• In a public speech Nasrallah said that he would not escalate the war if Israel would not escalate and that he would stop the attacks when Israel stops the war in Gaza. He called in the speech for the Lebanese government to reach a better deal than the 2006 UN Resolution 1701 which ended the Second Lebanon War and which Hezbollah has not complied with.
• Reuters reported that France is trying to reach an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in 3 stages, which would include- a cessation of hostilities, a Hezbollah retreat of 10 km from the border and the introduction of the Lebanese army into South Lebanon presumably to keep the peace, and finally negotiations about a new border.

 

  

Judea and Samaria

• A terrorist opened fire on civilians at a bus stop in Reem junction, killing 2 and wounding 4. The terrorist was eliminated. 27-year-old reserve soldier Sergeant First Class Ori Yaish and 23-year-old Yeshiva student Yishay Gertner were murdered in the attack.
• Hamas is continuing its failed attempts to instigate an intifada in Judea and Samaria. It called on Arabs all over the world to protest, and called for an end to the war over 3 days over the weekend. There was one protest in Nablus but overall Hamas’s efforts were rejected, and have so far failed to expand the war to this new front.
• Mark Rutte, the outgoing Dutch Prime minister met with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh in Ramallah to discuss the war.
• PA President Mahmud Abbas met with the Emir of Qatar Thamim bin Hamed in Qatar, and according to source, thanked him for Qatar’s role as an interlocular between Hamas and Fatah that may allow for Hamas to enter the PLO creating a technocratic unified Palestinian government. Abbas showed signs of being open towards reconciliation with Hamas and demonstrate Palestinian unity, long a demand of the international community. Hamas’s political bureau member agreed to steps that could be taken to establish a united Palestinian government in a meeting in Beirut 2 months ago.

 

 

Mohammad Dahlan, a Palestinian political leader living in exile and seen by many in the west and the international community as the next leader of the PA gave an interview to the New York Times in which he laid down his plans for a postwar Gaza. He serves as an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, and has support among Gazans partly due to his efforts to funnel millions of Emirati money to Gaza. His motto is “no Abbas, no Hamas.” His outlook has been creating a new Palestinian body under a Palestinian leader (ostensibly him) who could rebuild Gaza under the protection of an Arab peacekeeping force. This plan is allegedly supported by 6 Arab nations from which officials met in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss the issue. In the interview, Dahlan said a new Palestinian administration could invite friendly Arab states to send troops to help keep order in Gaza, while countries like the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia would be prepared to help fund reconstruction if Israel agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state.

 

 

Iraq and Syria

 

• The Russian Ambassador in Iraq sent his condolences to the chairman of the popular Mobilization Units in Iraq, responsible for representing the Shia militias in the country, for the killing of one of its senior leaders in an American attack. He called the American action “unjust and inhumane.” This demonstrates Russia’s growing ties with Iran and its proxies as well as its reliance on Iranian assets.
• The Iraqi Sunni parties have expressed their opposition to an American withdrawal from the country that would put them in danger.
• The Chief Justice of Iran’s Supreme Court visited Iraq and met with prominent political leaders, discussing security issues and the withdrawal of American troops. The Iraqi Parliament Speaker announced that they are planning on submitting the bill that would require the removal of American troops from the country.
• A Shia militia in Iraq with hundreds of fighters, smuggled weapons from Iraq to Syria via the Abu Kamal crossing. This was done through coordination with the IRGC.
• Iraqi clans announced their allegiance to the Popular Mobilization Forces, an Iranian proxy in Iraq and proclaimed their willingness to drive out the American forces in the country.
• Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for a drone attack on the Golan heights.

 

 

Yemen

• While many on Capitol Hill are disappointed that the State Department has not re-designated the Houthis as a Federally Terrorist Organization, but the less restrictive ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist,’ the sanctions imposed on the Houthi’s as a SDGT took effect on Friday.
• United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a ground to sea missile mildly damaged a British vessel in the Red Sea. US CENTCOM retaliated and destroyed 3 missile launching batteries.
• The Houthis attacked a ship near the Port of Aden and the US carried out a preemptive strike in the north of the country destroying 7 missile batteries and several UAVs.
• The US navy caught an Iranian ship on its way to Yemen with munitions destined for the Houthis which included ballistic missiles.
• Houthi leader, Abed Al Malik Al Houthis has said that the Houthis do not have any intention of damaging the submarine communications cable as fears that the Houthis could ensue tremendous damage to the global internet by damaging these cables.
• Marc J. Miguez, commander of Carrier Strike Group 2 has said that the US does not know exactly the size of the weapons silos the Houthis posses as many of them are underground. He added that the Houthis are the first ones to use ballistic missiles against ships and the US Navy is learning how deal with this new threat.

Iran

• IRGC’s navy conducted a successful experiment involving a ballistic missile launched from a vessel in the Strait of Oman that traveled a distance of 900 km to the center of the country demonstrating a capability that could threaten Israel.
• Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Iranian Foreign Minister said in an interview that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in the near term.
• Abdollahian is conducting a series of diplomatic visits with other members of the “axis of resistance.” He met terrorist leaders in Beirut, Doha including Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh and the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani before his visit to Cairo for negotiations with Hamas and Israel.
• According to a New York times article, Israel carried out covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines inside Iran, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces with millions of people. Energy experts estimated that the attacks on the pipelines, which each run for about 1,200 kilometers or 800 miles and carry 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, knocked out about 15 percent of Iran’s daily natural gas production, making them particularly sweeping assaults on the country’s critical infrastructure.
• It has been revealed that the US carried out a cyber attack on an Iranian military vessel in the Red Sea that was providing intelligence to the Houthis.
• Foreign Minister Abdollahian visited Syria and met with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to discuss the axis of resistance in its fight against Israel.
• An IRGC commander claimed that Iran managed to launch a ballistic missile from a military ship which is a new achievement for the IRGC. This would mark the first time that a missile was launched by Iranian forces against a target at sea.