Situation Report | “Rising Lion” – The Israel-Iran War

Day 12 | Updated June 24, 2025 14:00PM (Israeli Standard Time GMT+3)

 

Operational Clock War: Starting +275Hrs.

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Earlier versions of this report can be found here

Executive Summary

  • A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced late June 23 and went into effect early June 24 after a final, intense exchange of missile and airstrikes.
  • Both sides conducted major operations up to the ceasefire deadline, with significant casualties and infrastructure damage reported.
  • As of 14:00 (GMT+3) The ceasefire situation seems to be unclear due to Iranian violations of the agreement.

 

Operational Developments

Israeli Operations

  • In the morning (June 24th), the IDF reported that the IDF struck 8 Iranian ballistic missile launchers in western Iran. These launchers were primed to fire at Israel, and their destruction was said to have foiled a larger attack.
  • The IDF conducted strikes against dozens of Iranian military targets in Tehran overnight, dropping over 100 munitions.
  • It is estimated that many IGRC terrorists were targeted by the air raids.

 

Iranian Attacks (and Retaliation Against the US)

  • At 07:12 (GMT+3), 12 minutes after ceasefire went active, the Iranian regime launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel, breaking the ceasefire.
  • At least 4 Israeli citizens were murdered in the city of Beer-Sheva where a residential building was directly hit by an Iranian missile. More than 80 were wounded in that attack.
  • Iran continued to launch additional, continuous barrages, including both ballistic missiles and drones, just before the commencement of the ceasefire, after which attacks ceased only momentarily.

Missile Attack on US Base:

  • Iran launched a limited missile strike targeting the US Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar.
  • The attack was largely symbolic; no casualties or significant damage reported.

Threats to US and Allied Bases:

  • Iranian officials publicly threatened to target US, UK, and French military installations in the region if direct support for Israel continued.
  • IRGC statements warned that any US involvement in missile defense or intelligence sharing would make American assets “legitimate targets.”

Proxy Activity:

  • Iran coordinated with regional proxies (notably Yemen’s Houthis) to increase pressure on US interests and allies, including expanded missile launches toward Israel.

Operational Restraint:

  • Despite threats, Iranian actions against US assets have remained limited and calculated to avoid direct large-scale confrontation.

Ceasefire Timeline and Reactions

All times are by GMT+3

  • The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announced by President Trump and initially accepted by both sides, seems to be holding on by a thread. Within hours of the ceasefire’s scheduled commencement, Israeli authorities reported that Iran violated the agreement by launching two ballistic missiles toward northern Israel, both of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses.
  • In response, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly ordered the IDF to “respond forcefully” with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran, explicitly citing Iran’s breach of the ceasefire
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir also stated that Israel would strike with force following what he called a “grave violation” of the ceasefire by Iran.
  • Iranian officials and state media have denied launching missiles after the ceasefire went into effect, but Israeli and international sources confirm sirens and missile interceptions occurred in northern Israel just after the truce was supposed to begin.
  • Around 07:00 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian officials reiterate that any further attacks will be met with “decisive” retaliation.
  • Between 04:00-05:00 Iranian state media announced the start of the ceasefire, stating that the final missile barrages were completed just before 04:00. However, they failed to comply with this statement, attacking Israel after the statement was released before the ceasefire went into effect and afterwards.
  • In parallel, Israel halted offensive operations after confirming that Iran had stopped its attacks.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted that Iran will halt attacks if Israel ceases its “aggression” by 04:00, after President announcement.
  • Many conflicting reports by Iranian official media, Iranian backdoor diplomatic messages and Iranian social media reports about the truthiness of President Trump’s announcement regarding the ceasefire.
  • At 01:02, President Trump wrote on his Truth Social account that “Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire,” to begin in 6 hours (07:00) by the Iranians for 12 hours, after these 12 hours, Israel will start 12 hours ceasefire – meaning Israel has 12 hours response time to any attacks by the Iranians. Ultimately, the 24-hour ceasefire will become permanent.

 

 

Analysis

Several issues needed to be addressed by this so-called ceasefire agreement, which are still unclear but need to concern anyone who wants peace in the region:

  • Which collateral and guarantees Israel have to stop Iran from keep developing nuclear weapons and enlarge its ballistic program?
  • What is the mechanism in which the war is stopped and a mutual agreement is signed? Wars do not cease just because there is some arbitrary vague saying to do so, they end with defined written agreement.
  • It is suspected and yet to be determined publicly – did the Iranian succeeded in smuggling hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium before the destruction of 3 main nuclear sites by the US? If so, could the material be smuggled outside of Iran to be used as several tactical nuclear bombs? Potentially, there are several such bombs which can be used against any civilian (and non) target across the globe.