The war in the Gaza Strip has once again placed the “Palestinian Cause” on the global agenda and in particular on the pan-Arab agenda. Besides the severe threat to regional peace, the moderate Arab countries also regard this war as a vector for a conclusive solution of the “Palestinian Cause”. With this they dovetail with the US administration’s vision of achieving the establishment of a “rejuvenating Palestinian Authority”.
This paper presents a set of developments and points out the moves now taking place behind the scenes, in favor of the plan for restructuring the Palestinian arena. The first part dealt with the Palestinian Authority; this part deals with Hamas.
American Pressure on Qatar to Expel Hamas
Reports in the Arab media indicates that the United States is pressuring Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership from its territory. However Arab sources tell us that Qatar is trying to turn the release of the hostages held by Hamas into a lifeline that will guarantee Hamas’ political future within Qatar. They believe the Hamas internal disputes and power struggles are a sign of increased motivation on the part of Hamas to transform from a political entity under Qatar auspices into an Iran-sponsored military wing.
Sources in Israel expect additional senior Hamas figures will be leaving Qatar for Algiers, Turkey and Lebanon. According to Arab sources, the departure is part of a process of Hamas’ departure from the Qatari auspices in favor of the Iranian axis. Whereas Qatar has for years worked to buy off Hamas through cash payments, and to establish the Muslim Brotherhood State in the Gaza Strip, Iran is buying, through cash and arms, this Jihadi proxy in Gaza, which is dragging Israel into a war, providing Iran with the cover it needs to continue making progress with its nuclear program.
“Qatar is under extremely heavy pressure from the United States, that is demanding Qatar change direction with Hamas, and it is on the verge of imposing severe sanctions on Hamas”, says an Arab source close to the talks. “It is very likely that Qatar will soon be asking Isma’il Haniyeh and the leadership team to leave the country. However, for the time being it is attempting to relieve the pressure through hostage releases.”
The same source estimates that “Haniyeh will not be able to relocate anywhere except to Lebanon, since there is no other country ready to host him.” He further commented that the question of where the head of the Hamas Qatari faction, Khaled Mashal will take up residence, has once again been brought up for debate. Mashal is not favored by Hezbollah and the Iranian axis.
“Not a Single Dollar So Long as Hamas is Still in Control”
In talks, hosted by Qatar, senior Arab delegates are at work setting up a new Palestinian organ that will rule in the Gaza Strip. These states are pressing Hamas to step aside and clear the way for reconstruction of the Strip. They have unequivocally stated that so long as Hamas is still in control, they are going to withhold any and all involvement and aid for the said reconstruction.
“Not a single dollar will get through as long as you rule the Strip”, Hamas leadership were told – this according to an Arab source, who adds that the Arab states are at the same time pressing Mahmoud Abbas to step down as well. The goal is to enable the establishment of a new PLO organ, which will take over responsibility for ruling the Strip with substantial economic aid from Arab and Gulf states, with Qatar foremost among them.
Arab sources that took part in talks in Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia tell us that in talks held among Palestinian representatives, including Nasser Qidwa, who represent Muhammad Dahlan who is living in the Emirates after having been expelled by Mahmoud Abbas from Fatah, many of those present got the impression that Hamas have resigned themselves to the reality that they will not be allowed to remain in post-war Gaza.
The sources reported on official and semi-official talks held recently between Arab states and representatives of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas representatives regarding Gaza in the post-war era. These talks involved representatives from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Some of the talks were held both in Egypt and in Qatar, which hosted Palestinian Authority officials and Fatah officials for talks with the Hamas leadership.
The talks dealt with the day after the war in the Strip. One of the participants told us: “it is apparent that Hamas is coming to terms with the fact that it is going to have to relinquish its rule over the Gaza Strip. It will even be compelled to hand over the keys to a new Palestinian entity, which will be based mainly on national unity within the PLO.”
The source stressed that “these realizations are coming mainly from the Hamas Qatar group. They are shared by Khaled Mashal, Mousa Abu Marzouk and others.” The latter have been interviewed recently and said that if they were to join the PLO, they would recognize the resulting signed agreements. They went on to stress: “Israel has rights of its own, but not at Palestinian expense.”
Senior Hamas Officials are Prepared to Join the PLO
“We were extremely surprised to find out just how far the Hamas people in Qatar have come toward the positions traditionally held by Fatah and the PLO,” said one of the participants in those meetings. “The Hamas leaders indicated their eager willingness to join the PLO. What’s left now is to finalize the terms for this to happen.” This being said, he stressed: “Yahya Sinwar, who represents the Iranian faction within Hamas, is furious with his Qatar mates. He forbids them to have these conversations.”
This is also why Sinwar recently sent letters to the Hamas Qatar leadership, in which he sought to convince them that he was fully in control of the situation in the Gaza Strip. “Sinwar forbids any discussion of the day after without his consent or presence,” said the Arab source.
However in this respect, one of the surprises came from the words of Zaher Jabbarin, SaSaleh al-Arouri’s deputy and successor, who was in charge of activities in Judea and Samaria until he was terminated. According to him, Hamas is ready to discuss the idea of a Palestinian unity government for the post-war Gaza Strip.
He added that in the talks, several things were said that indicated the possibility that Hamas will, in future, in the post-war Strip, relinquish its rule and become a political party. This readiness is a consequence of their realization that not a single Arab state will agree to finance reconstruction in the Gaza Strip as long as Hamas is in control there. These states are also demanding that Mahmoud Abbas institute substantial reforms of his own. The Americans are pressing for the same as well.
“Yahya Sinwar is not going to stand between the Gaza Strip and its reconstruction under the new Palestinian rule,” said the source. “We received indications, in talks we have held, that Sinwar will support the handover of rule in Gaza to the new Palestinian Authority after the war in the Gaza Strip ends.”
“Sinwar believes he has accomplished his historic achievement in the onslaught on the Western Negev settlements,” said the source. “He is now indicating that he prefers a unified Palestinian entity to rule over the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria. Sinwar is not an ideologue. He does not regard a Hamas state in the Gaza Strip to be the peak of Palestinian ambitions. In recent years he has been regarded as having much stronger nationalistic opinions, rather than Islamist opinions. He is closer to the traditional Fatah positions.”
“Hamas Has Got To Recognize the State of Israel”
The United Arab Emirates is also pressuring Hamas to morph into a demilitarized organization and clear the way to reconstruction and to a new rule in the Strip. The Emirates have recently stepped up their aid to the Gaza Strip. According to the Arab source, “this is no coincidence, since they have been indicating that their candidate for running the Strip is Muhammad Dahlan.”
This is consistent with the overt American effort to impose a set of economic sanctions on the Hamas top brass, including those based in Qatar. Sanctions have been imposed on Ismail Barhoum, a Gaza resident and member of the Hamas political bureau, who is serving as the head of the finance division. The second is Haroun Nasser Eldin, residing in Turkey, who is one of Hamas’ financial operatives who played a part in the network that transferred money from Turkey and from Gaza to the Hamas command center in Hebron.
The New York reported that Hamas held an assets and investment portfolio worth about half a billion dollars. The Hamas investment portfolio included high-rise buildings in the UAE, real estate in Algeria, farms in Sudan, and also a mining company and a real estate investment megacompany in Turkey, which is traded on the Turkish stock exchange. The financial hub of the Hamas investment fund was in Turkey.
To justify its positions and its support for Hamas, Qatar is now trying to portray Hamas in a softer, more moderate light, going so far as working to integrate it into the PLO. This is the only explanation for Mousa Abu Marzouk’s recent extraordinary statement – Marzouk, who is regarded as the head of the Qatari faction: “Hamas has got to recognize Israel.” In an interview from Doha he added, “We must uphold the official Palestinian position, in which the PLO has recognized Israel. After all, the Israelis are also entitled to rights, although not at the expense of others.”
Qatari sources reject the allegations, voiced in Israel and the United States, regarding Qatar’s backing of Hamas. They claim that the Hamas office in Qatar was opened in 2012 following a request from the United States and has remained there ever since in coordination with successive White House administrations. Qatar claims that the United States asked it to host Hamas so as to retain the last remaining communication channels with the movement, which began reorienting itself with Iran and was about to settle in Lebanon and Iran. The Qataris add that they acceded to the American request in order to install a measure of stability in the Gaza Strip as far back as 2007, following Hamas’ takeover of the Strip.
The Qatari Prime Minister, who has had two recent meetings with the CIA chief and with the Head of the Israeli Mossad, has recently been saying repeatedly that the Hamas office in Qatar was set up to consolidate regional stability. Other spokespersons repeatedly explain that the money transferred already back in 2018 to Hamas was transferred with the full knowledge and close coordination with Israel and the United States. The assumption was that this would make it possible to pacify the region. All this indicates that the concept that paved the way for the outbreak of the current war was conceived many years ago with collusion of the Qataris and the Americans.
However, notwithstanding any of this, Qatar still possesses a very rare mediatory capacity as a means for preserving Hamas a a movement and for neutralizing American objections to Hamas’ continued presence in Qatar. We have found out from Arab sources that Qatar is currently preoccupied with efforts to secure a hostage release. This move is intended to relieve American pressure and to preserve at least the Qatari faction within Hamas.
A Hostage Deal will Dictate the Fate of Hamas in Qatar
Qatar has racked up a string of successes in mediation on behalf of the United States. It is now trying to achieve yet another success by freeing the hostages held by Hamas. It was Qatar that was behind the United States-Iran mediation on the American hostage crisis, and also behind the mediation between the Taliban and the Americans. Qatar even mediated in the release of hostages that were being held by the armed groups and by ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Arab sources believe Hamas’ future in Qatar depends to a large extent on the success of the future hostage release deals. It is expected that every additional hostage returning to Israel will improve the chances of Hamas’ remaining in Qatar. To this end Qatar is now pulling all strings available to it in favor of achieving another hostage release. A dedicated government body in Qatar is dedicated exclusively to this effort. It is using every one of the special relations it has established with Hamas and is also leveraging Hamas’ dependence on Qatari money. However, Sinwar’s moves have recently been more aligned with the Iranian faction and contrary toward Qatar.
Qatar consistently indicates to the United States that it does not intend to discontinue its aid to Gaza, and has even though Qatar even sent its Minister of Economic Cooperation on a visit to the Strip several weeks ago. This being said, as far as relations are concerned with the Hamas leadership, which is dominated by its military wing, there are profound differences, and even an undercurrent of hostility, between the Qatari authorities and Yahya Sinwar’s circle.
Apparently the pressure the United States is exerting on Qatar, and Qatar’s mediation efforts, are being stymied by the bitter differences within the Hamas leadership. According to various sources, Isma’il Haniyeh is leaning toward further hostage release deals in an effort to help his Qatari hosts in their efforts, while on the opposite end Yahya Sinwar has severed any communications he had with them and he is no longer being cooperative on this matter.
An Arab source believes that this proves the Hamas Qatar leadership is seeking ways to secure its political future in the country, while it is reported that Sinwar, in his hiding place in Gaza, is furious about the negotiations his comrades in Qatar are conducting and is demanding they desist. This has also been confirmed from the Israeli side.
Qatar, according to these sources, is pressuring the Hamas leadership to go along with the plans for the day after, while threatening it will not continue to play host to Hamas in its territory after the war. Several months ago, an open dispute erupted between Hamas and Qatar, which froze the transfer of money to the Gaza Strip after Sinwar issued several statements about Hamas’ right of return to Syria, which infuriated Qatar.
Dispute between the Iran Faction and the Qatar Faction within Hamas
Signs of the rift between the Hamas Qatari faction and its Iranian faction have already been observed in the past. In 2019, Qatar sent a signal to the Hamas military wing when the Qatari Ambassador to Gaza, Muhammad Imdai, traveled to Hebron, where he met Aziz Dweik, who was a member of the Hamas leadership in the West Bank, and urged him to submit his candidacy for the Palestinian Authority elections, in an attempt to occupy as high as possible a role in the Palestinian leadership. Dweik and his fellow leaders in the West Bank are considered pariahs by the Gaza military wing, and their sole representation was in the form of Saleh al-Arouri and Zaher Jabbarin. The problem is that Jabbarin does not reside in Judea and Samaria at all. He splits his time between Beirut and Tehran.
Sinwar did not forget, and he got his revenge on Qatar and even caused the Qataris great embarrassment when he forced Qatar to send a special envoy to the Rafah Crossing to try to persuade him to fulfill one of the hostage release tranches as had been agreed in advance. An Arab source believes that only Egyptian pressure eventually persuaded Sinwar not to renege on the agreements. All this happened while the head of the political bureau, Haniyeh, is himself based in Qatar.
The prevailing opinion at the moment is that removal of the Hamas leadership from Qatar is under consideration, although this might occur gradually, or even be paused, but only if the bilateral relations will be redefined. The belief is that this can be prevented if Qatar will succeed in persuading the United States to compromise on this issue – which might be the case if Qatar succeeds in bringing about a hostage release as it did several months ago when it engineered a two-way prisoner swap between Iran and the United States.
However, this is where the disagreements between Qatar and Iran come into play. There is disagreement between the two countries as to the nature of the hostage swap deals that have taken place so far. There are even more severe disagreements about Hamas’ post-war status in the Gaza Strip. It is therefore no surprise that the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Qatar when the latter hosted negotiations on the release of hostages held by Hamas.
Sinwar-Haniyeh Tensions and Other Conflicts
It appears, according to various sources, that Sinwar realizes that any further hostage release deal will serve the Qatari faction, whereas he takes his orders from Iran. On the other hand Isma’il Haniyeh, who is still based in Qatar, supports further deals because he realizes this will be conducive to his continued presence there. The resulting tension between the two is therefore decidedly palpable. This was made obvious when, during the pause in fighting, the Qataris were forced to send an envoy to the Gaza Strip to persuade Sinwar to continue with the roll-out of the hostage release deal, adhering to it to the letter, and not to diverge from the agreements reached. Arab and Israeli sources claim that it was only when Egyptian, not Qatari pressure, was brought to bear that he eventually relented and fell in line.
Sinwar was also in severe dispute with Saleh al-Arouri, who had been his fellow-leader in the “West Bank Leadership”. Al-Arouri, who was killed in Beirut, had been promised by Haniyeh to be promoted to the leadership role following the next elections, which were due to be held in 2025, as part of a “rotation agreement” between the two. This infuriated Sinwar and Nizar Awdallah, both of whom are in Gaza, and they shifted their support to al-Arouri’s deputy, Zaher Jabbarin, for the role of Hamas’ next West Bank leader. The feuds among the Hamas top brass have resulted in several developments. Various sources report that Isma’il Haniyeh had already appointed Muhammad Nasser, a Hamas senior, as his special envoy for coordination with Syria.
Nasser, Sinwar’s confidante, is unpopular among the Qataris. It is due to his activities from Qatari soil that Qatar cut off its financial support for the Hamas Gaza leadership. This measure, taken by Haniyeh, incensed Khalil Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy in the Gaza leadership. Al-Hayya is charged with the coordination portfolio with the Arab states and had therefore recently begun working to secure the option of hosting the Hamas headquarters in Algiers. To this end he appointed Yousuf Hamdan as his special representative. This might explain the reports claiming that the Hamas leadership is about to relocate from Qatar to Algiers.
There is another dispute between Haniyeh, who supports Hamas’ allegiance with Iran, and Khaled Mashal, who has consistently advocated closer ties with the moderate Arab states. For this reason, Iran has been refusing to receive a visit from Mashal. This includes a visit the latter had made to Lebanon, during which he was shunned by Hezbollah.
The Waning Qatari Influence on Hamas
Thus has Hamas gradually gravitated toward Iran to become its terrorist proxy in the Gaza Strip, and it appears that the Qatari influence, which the Americans and Israel had 20 years hitherto regarded as a moderating influence, has gradually been waning. The Qatari faction within Hamas has been losing traction and its influence has been further weakening as Hamas forges ever-closer relations with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Hamas military wing is determined to strengthen its ties with Hezbollah and Iran, despite a string of fatwahs blocking this, due to Bashar Assad’s role in the slaughter of Muslims. Khaled Mashal, the head of the Qatari faction, who had for many years served as head of the political bureau, is losing power, paving the way for Hamas to return to Syria, from which Mashal had been expelled after he criticized it following the Syrian civil war.
Sinwar, on the other hand, has become a key player in the Hamas leadership. It is he who drives the moves and ultimately makes the tough decisions. Whereas Qatar is trying to establish the world’s only Muslim Brotherhood country through the infusion of money, Iran has, through monetary payoffs, succeeded in buying over the Hamas proxy and, through the war in Gaza it has imposed on Israel it is now able to continue to focus its efforts on its nuclear development project and to dig in throughout the Lebanese and Syrian region.
“Hamasland” in South Lebanon?
Besides all of the above, Hamas has steadily been digging in throughout South Lebanon, which is already perceived to be a Hamasland. The assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, just a yard away from Nasrallah’s bedroom, is a high point in Hamas’ establishing itself in Lebanon. Al-Arouri was the person responsible for the new Hamas strategy and for the building of its bases and command posts in South Lebanon in coordination with Hezbollah and Iran. His elimination is not going to get in the way of his life’s work continuing.
Hamas Lebanon has become a fully-fledged proxy of Hezbollah. Nasrallah, who makes sure to play by the rules with the IDF, is using Hamas when he needs to strike at the Israeli homefront – thus once in the bombing of Nahariya and another time in Kiryat Shemona.
Hamas has become a highly-popular player in Lebanon. It is deeply-rooted within the Palestinian refugee camps. A survey has shown a 79-percent support rate for the organization in South Lebanon. Nasrallah is satisfied: for years he has been seeking a Sunni Palestinian ally to rule over the violent, volatile refugee camps in South Lebanon. Hamas is also satisfied, since Nasrallah is opening the door for Hamas into Lebanon and soon into Syria as well.
Hamas has recently begun recruiting Palestinian youths into a new organization it has set up, the “Al-Aqsa Flood Pioneers”, the same name given to the present war. The Lebanese were furious with this establishing of yet another terrorist organization, one of many, and Hamas hastened to deny and make it clear that this was not a military organization, but rather a youth organization, many in Lebanon still have dreadful memories of the Fatahland that had once spanned south Lebanon and now they are unwilling to have a Hamasland be introduced into the ailing state.
Hamas was quick to deny this was a military organization but not everyone was convinced. The fear of mass mobilization of the Palestinians into Hamas ranks was considerable. The Christians, who experienced first-hand the consequences of the 1970s civil war are apprehensive over this new development, and in particular they are uneasy about the uninvited guests who have once again turned up from the south. Even Nasrallah’s political allies, such as Jubran Basil, are worried about his new-found friends, while he is enjoying their company immensely.
The funerals of the victims slain in the Dahia left south Lebanon in shock after having witnessed the overt Hamas mass rallies on the streets – an overt show of force. Each funeral was turned into a show of force, with Hamas signaling it is here to stay, perhaps as a form of coming to terms with the impending loss of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas’ main power base is, then, in the refugee camps. Thousands took part in the funerals. Two years ago, in the Burj a-Shimali camp, a Hamas ammunition depot blew up, and the Ein al-Hilwa camp, Hamas defeated the Fatah gangs, a sign of tensions within the camps.
Lebanon Unwilling to Pay the Price of its Guests from the South
Several years ago Mahmoud Abbas received a secret intelligence report in which his men pointed toward Hamas’ inroads being made into the refugee camps, supplanting the Fatah presence there. This applied not only to Jenin or Nablus, Fatah was also losing ground to Hamas in south Lebanon. Since this report was submitted, there have been many signs indicating that these camps have been transformed into one of Hamas’ most potent power bases. In Lebanon, word is that Hamas is so deeply entrenched there, that its members even take part in Shiite religious ceremonies. This alarms the Lebanese, and even clergymen are worried over the increasing power of the Palestinian terrorist organization.
Lebanese commentators warn against the return of dark times. Others are fearful of getting embroiled in a war merely due to avenge the killing of a Palestinian, regardless of how important he may be, and others are simply fed up with the wars that have wrecked the country. Hezbollah recently informed Hamas that it has no intention to join an all-out war with Israel, ratcheting up the pressure among the Palestinian partners. Since then Hamas has been trying to conceal the tensions and maintain good relations with their boss-cum-host.
Hamas’ decision to set up a base in Lebanon is a highly significant development in the terrorist organization’s history. It is also an important move for the Iranian axis of evil. It is no coincidence that Hamas is already establishing another toehold in Syria. On the other hand, the Lebanese realize they are liable to be forced once again to pay a heavy price because of these unwelcome guests arriving from the south.
According to Lebanese sources, Hamas has already set up a recruitment network, based primarily on the refugee camps, and that it is responsible for the recruitment of youngsters between the ages of 17 and 20 into its military units. The first indication of Hamas’ working to set up a military power base was received in one of the IDF’s operations in which a squad was killed in south Lebanon, and it transpired that one of its members was the Hamas Deputy Commander in Lebanon, Khalil Kharraz, and with him were a military man from Lebanon and two military men from Turkey.
One can assume that the Hamas presence in the refugee camps serves Hezbollah’s interests, which seeks to control a force that will be able to restrain the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees in the camps, while Hamas is interested in setting up a new strategic homefront for its activities ahead of the post-war period.
All this is taking place despite Israel working to redraw the security landscape in south Lebanon, and Hezbollah on its part is waiting for an opportune moment while preparing for a protracted period of attrition. Ever since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip, Israel has been trying to alter the security landscape in south Lebanon as well, realizing that Hezbollah is capable of unleashing its Redwan forces to commit an onslaught along the same lines as those of the Hamas slaughter in the Gaza Strip Envelope settlements, and even worse. Lebanese sources have claimed that Israel has exacted an exorbitant price from Hezbollah and south Lebanon since the outbreak of the war.
The Price of Hamas’ Alignment with Iran
In summary: Hamas, by re-orienting itself toward the Iranian Axis of Resistance at the expense of the Sunni Axis, might come at a heavy cost to them. This is mainly due to the realization that the moderate Sunni states have reached the conclusion, according to our sources, that Hamas is going to have to relinquish its rule over the Gaza Strip.
On the other hand, Qatar is still keen on retaining the Hamas Abroad leadership and is also working to induct Hamasa into the PLO as a political safe haven. This explains the statements made by Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khaled Mashal about the need to join the PLO.
Mahmoud Abbas, according to our sources, understands that Hamas’ entry into the PLO might be to his detriment, a Trojan Horse of sorts, and therefore he is imposing difficult terms for this, first and foremost among them that Hamas recognize all of the agreements the PLO has signed, including the Oslo Accords – all in an effort to bar Hamas from joining the Palestinian umbrella organization.
The internal feuds within Hamas, the split into the Qatari faction and the Iranian faction, the Arab diplomatic pressure, the American economic pressure, the Israeli military pressure and a string of alternative plans – like the Dahlan plan we reported in the previous chapter – might ultimately result in the expulsion of Hamas from the Gaza Strip.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the movement
