On Saturday morning, Simchat Torah, October 7th, as soon as Id been updated on the situation, I asked myself two questions. First, why had Hamas launched a war, including the incursion of thousands of terrorists, knowing that this war would lead to their destruction? The second questions was why Hezbollah hadn’t launched an additional front at the same time, as had been expected? The answers to these questions are 1,600 km from here. In Teheran.
Hamas’ “Pyrrhic Victory”
In 280 BCE King Pyrrhus of Epirus led an Tarentine army against Rome. Legend says that Pyrrhus may have won the battle but he paid such a high price that he coined the saying “If we beat the Romans in one more battle, we’re lost”. This is the sort of achievement which the Hamas garnered on Saturday. They may have presented a picture of unprecedented victory in their own eyes, but the final outcome will be their utter decimation.
Did the Hamas not foresee the extensive public and political consensus for their annihilation? One could claim that this is in fact the situation. Firstly, it seems as though Hamas did not expect this level of success for their operations on Saturday. They expected to encounter a more significant military response at a much earlier stage of the operation, and never thought that they would succeed in reaching these numbers of people murdered and kidnapped. Secondly, it is very likely that the Hamas did not foresee the national resilience which Israeli society demonstrated over recent days. For months now, we’ve heard in both the Israeli and international press about the social cohesion which has been damaged, about the IDF’s capabilities which were questioned, about the lack of faith in the government about refusal to serve. These news stories were not ignored by Hamas, who tried to test the strength of these Israeli “spiders webs” and found that, in fact, they were made of steel.
However, this is not the entire story.
America vs. Iran – The Big Picture
As we recall, the second question which concerns both me and many other citizens in Israel is – why did Hezbollah not launch a coordinated attack? In order to explain this, it’s necessary to rise up a few thousand feet and have a look at the bigger picture.
Both Hezbollah and Hamas are mere pawns in Iran’s game. They are both funded by Iran and receive arms, equipment and orders from them, in order to harm Israel and through them, America. Iran has been painstakingly planning this war for a long time, but they are still unprepared. For this reason they need to hone their nuclear capabilities and other military abilities, and to carefully select the appropriate time to allow them to win a multi-front war. This is not the war which has broken out now. This is not the big war Iran is planning.
The attack by Hamas is not the comprehensive one. It is a planned, calculated sacrifice by Iran. Why did the Iranian octopus decide to launch and sacrifice Hamas? Because of the new threat which began to concern Iran recently; the strategic coalition of the US with Israel and the Sunni states. Normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia means normalizing relations as well with the entire Sunni world including Indonesia, Pakistan and Oman, which are very close to Iran. This cooperation endangers Iran and, among other things, will include placing American weapons in neighbouring territories, and highly advanced weaponry in Saudi Arabia.
It is crucial for the Iranians to prevent the advance of these peace agreements. In order to achieve this, they decided to sacrifice one of the arms they had wrapped around Israel; Hamas. Just as in a chess game it is sometimes necessary to sacrifice an important piece in order to advance on the board, Iran chose to activate Hamas, knowing that they were likely sacrificing them, in order to sabotage the peace accords between Israel and the Sunni states. They decided to keep Hezbollah, the queen on Iran’s chess board, for another occasion.
From past experience, the Iranians know that these rounds of fighting lead to problematic relations between Israel and the United States, and more importantly, between Israel and the Sunni states. Nonetheless, something in the Iranian plan went awry, and the United States are firmly and loudly remaining by our side, stronger than ever.
What is making them, our greatest allies, send us aircraft carriers and to threaten to join the battle, and can we ascribe this decision to Hamas’ barbarity which was exposed in the Gaza Envelope?
The Leader and the Nation
There is no doubt that America is Israel’s best friend, but there have been periods in which support from them was more hesitant. Up until a few weeks ago it seemed as though Israel-US relations were far from idea and some reports hinted that the American government were less than thrilled with the political situation in Israel. Notwithstanding, two individual and national elements have led to America’s current firm response.
Just as America is a true friend of Israel, Joe Biden himself is a lover of Israel, and a man with an understanding of the Shoah burned into his mind. As someone born during the Second World War, Biden is a man for whom the horrors of the Shoah are engraved upon his heart. The images of the atrocities which emerged on Saturday, and the scope of the disaster which became clearer in the days following, reminded Biden and the entire American nation of the decisive role they took upon themselves in the Second World War as leaders of the free world, as well as their responsibility to prevent a recurrence of similar atrocities.
However, in addition to America’s touching commitment to save Jews, there were decisive other interests at play here. Just as a Saudi-Israeli peace agreement would threaten Iran, it strengthens the US both economically and politically. This is at the top of America’s list of interests, and would be a very significant feather in his cap for President Biden, who is already considering a run for the presidency in another year. Iranian damage to this sort of national and personal interest would not go by without a response.
A Campaign in the North – It’s Just a Matter of Time
This is the reason that currently, the Iranians are choosing not to activate Hezbollah. Hezbollah entering the war would lead to a heavy price to pay, including the destruction of all of the organization’s infrastructures, which would strategically damage all of Iran’s plans. Furthermore, this sort of action would likely activate the Americans and possibly lead to an attack on Iranian soil. At the same time, it’s uncertain whether Iran would be prepared for the complete decimation of Hamas, and they may choose to throw Hezbollah into battle when the time comes.
Currently, Hezbollah are playing around on the border – in two ways. First, they aren’t launching a war. The anti-tank fire on the northern border comes nowhere the fire power that Hezbollah has squirrelled away, and they are taking care not to escalate matters to the critical stage. Nonetheless, they are not exactly leaving Hamas on their own, and are employing irritating force to keep the IDF busy up north. Only once the ground movement is initiated and American power in the area is put to the test will Iran decide how to proceed.
As far as Israel is concerned, Iran’s intentions are less important, given that the conclusions drawn from Saturday are forcing Israel to conclude the same about what’s happening in Lebanon. Just as in Gaza they have the Nuheba unit who attacked our communities in the Gaza Envelope, in Lebanon they have the Raduan Brigade who are trained to create a similar situation in the norther region, with larger, better trained forces. For Israel, the war in Lebanon is unavoidable. Sooner or later, the IDF will have to deal with the Raduan’s location along the border. The only question is when.
