After 2 weeks of spectacular military operations in Lebanon including feats, taken straight from a spy thriller film, Israel finally took out the most powerful terrorist in the world: Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nassrallah.
Israel’s repeated strikes and operations against the Shia terror group have demonstrated that Israeli decision makers have decided to shift gears and be willing to take calculated risks to change the geopolitical balance of power. For the first time there is a sense that Israel is willing to go all the way for a decisive victory, leaving no stone unturned rather than kicking the Hezbollah can down the road for the next generations of Israelis to deal with.
Israel is at a crossroads and has found a golden opportunity to finish off Hezbollah, potentially changing the fabric of Lebanon and the Iranian entrenchment on its northern borders from Lebanon and Syria.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden, now a lame duck, has a much weaker leverage over Israel in attempting to hamstring Israel from dominating the escalator ladder. The US is fully immersed in the election cycle and the White House signals that it is not too keen to divert attention and resources to another Middle East crisis it needs to “contain”.
On its part, however, Iran is making strides in its attempts to assuage the west and get a new nuclear deal as reiterated by the New Iranian president. Iran cannot afford to get directly involved in a conflict with Israel right now when it needs the West. According to reports, Iran declined to directly attack Israel and protect its proxy to the chagrin of Hezbollah. After the strikes on Friday on Beirut’s Dahia quarter, Hezbollah’s infamous stronghold, former IRGC commander and Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi said in an interview to the Iranian national TV that every leader is replaceable, hinting that they have a successor to Nassralah. Irans allies see it as abandoning them in the money time.
Israel now has the opportunity to further the wedge between Iran and its strongest proxy Hezbollah. With continued attacks against Hezbollah, Israel could force Iran to either allow it to finish off Hezbollah in order to save a potential nuclear deal or get involved and “kiss goodbye” a lucrative nuclear deal that would fill the Islamic Republic’s coffers. Neither choice would benefit Iran.
Moreover, a weakened Hezbollah coupled with the ecstatic swathes of the Syrian and Lebanese factions who openly celebrated Nassralah’s demise, could be pushed and assisted into weakening Iran’s iron grip over these countries. Once a critical mass of anti-Hezbollah forces coalesce at a time when the Shia terror group is overwhelmed, a social tipping point could be reached changing the balance of power against Iran for the next decades.
Cutting off the largest tentacle of the Iranian octopus could also have a trinkle down effect for other proxies and restore Israel’s lost deterrence. Following the news on Nassralah’s elimination, Iranian supreme leader Ali Kameniei was moved to a secure location fearing another Israeli attack.
This momentum must continue so Israel will be able to break the tie in northern Israel and have its own internal displaced persons return to their homes. It would prove to Israelis and the jihadists that Israel will achieve its other war aims just like it achieved the restoration of the north.
This is the way to end the war, maintain and image of victory and change the narrative that Israel’s enemies tell themselves about Israel’s vulnerability.
The article was originally published on ynetnews
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the movement
