Overview
- Israel has intensified strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Beirut, targeting key figures and military infrastructure. Hezbollah’s leadership, especially Naim Qassem, is showing signs of strain, with calls for a ceasefire.
- Hezbollah’s tactic of using civilians as shields is drawing criticism, while Israel is gaining control in southern Lebanon. The raising of Israel’s flag in a former Hezbollah stronghold marks a symbolic victory, and Hezbollah’s future appears increasingly uncertain.
- Israel is currently facing both internal and external challenges, with escalating terror attacks and complex geopolitical dynamics. Recent terror incidents, such as the deadly shooting in Be’er Sheva and a stabbing attack in Hadera, have heightened domestic security concerns. At the same time, diplomatic tensions with the U.S. are complicating Israel’s strategy on Iran, particularly after Prime Minister Netanyahu delayed a crucial trip by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to discuss military options with American leaders.
- The IDF conducts airstrikes and ground operations targeting key Hamas figures and infrastructure in Jabaliya. Hamas, in response, has mobilized civilians and ramped up efforts to resist, including calls for renewed suicide bombings and psychological warfare.
- Palestinian leaders lead demonstrations across Judea and Samaria, as tensions escalate between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The IDF conducted targeted operations, killing PIJ leader Mohammad Abdullah. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority pursued diplomatic efforts to secure international support for Gaza’s reconstruction, engaging with U.S. and French officials. Talks between Hamas and Fatah took place in Cairo aimed at forming a unity government, reflecting broader Palestinian efforts to present unified Palestinian leadership.
- Iran has escalated its rhetoric and actions in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza. Tensions have also risen with Gulf states, as Tehran warned against cooperation with Israel, particularly regarding airspace usage for potential strikes. Meanwhile, internal debates over Iran’s nuclear weapons policy have resurfaced, with calls for a review of its nuclear doctrine.
Lebanon – Hezbollah
IDF operations in Lebanon
In recent days, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated, with significant developments on both military and political fronts. Reports from southern Lebanon indicate that Israeli forces have targeted several positions, including areas under UNIFIL supervision. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) has released a Statement regarding the incident which Two U.N. Peacekeepers were Injured by Israeli Shelling; stating that earlier in the day the IDF had notified UNIFIL of an ongoing Military Operation near their Headquarters in Naqoura, and that they should remain in Shelters until further notice. During the Operation, Israeli Forces came under fire from an Hezbollah Terror Cell located less than 200 Feet from the UNIFIL Compound; while Israeli Tanks were returning fire, a Shell struck a U.N. Observation Post resulting in Shrapnel Injuries to the Two Peacekeepers from Sri Lanka.
One of the most striking developments has been Israel’s aerial attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut, specifically in the Ras al-Naba area outside the Dahiya district, Hezbollah-controlled zones. Lebanese sources confirmed multiple strikes in densely populated Shiite neighborhoods, reflecting Israel’s intent to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, even beyond the group’s traditional areas of influence. These strikes appear to target key Hezbollah figures, with Wafik Safa, a prominent Hezbollah operative, reportedly among those pursued. This marks the third time since the war began that Israel has conducted operations in Beirut outside of the Dahiya area, including prior strikes in Kola and Al-Bashura, each carried out without prior evacuation warnings, suggesting a focus on eliminating high-value targets.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah’s leadership is visibly shaken. Naim Qassem, the organization’s deputy leader, addressed supporters with an unusually vulnerable tone. Despite trying to project strength, Qassem’s call for a ceasefire, led by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, suggests desperation within the group. His claim that “all positions in Hezbollah are filled” contrasts with the perception that the organization is faltering politically and militarily. His willingness for a ceasefire, even as the war in Gaza continues, reveals Hezbollah’s precarious position.
Reports from Lebanese media suggest Hezbollah gunmen have infiltrated civilian displacement centers, particularly in Beirut, causing civilians to fear becoming targets of Israeli retaliation. This highlights Hezbollah’s use of human shields, embedding fighters within civilian populations, a tactic condemned by international observers and the U.S. State Department as a violation of the laws of armed conflict.
Israel’s control over southern Lebanon is growing. Recently, Israeli soldiers raised their flag in Maroun al-Ras, where a statue of Qassem Soleimani once stood. This symbolic victory, occurring a year after October 7, signifies a blow to the narrative of the “axis of resistance” Soleimani helped build.
Despite Hezbollah’s significant military capabilities, including missiles and drones, Israel is consolidating control, eliminating key Hezbollah leaders. The weakened leadership, growing internal criticism, and Lebanon’s inability to curb Hezbollah’s influence have created an opportunity for other groups to challenge its dominance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that this is a critical moment for the Lebanese to hold Hezbollah accountable for the destruction and instability caused by its alignment with Iranian interests.
In summary, the war has not only reshaped Lebanon’s military dynamics but also diminished Hezbollah’s political standing. As Israel dismantles its military infrastructure and eliminates leaders, Hezbollah appears increasingly isolated and desperate for a ceasefire, facing an uncertain future. Whether this signals a broader collapse or a tactical retreat remains to be seen.
Israel – Domestic / Political / Militarily
In a series of escalating terror attacks and political maneuvers, Israel has faced both internal and external challenges over the past week, underscoring the fragile security situation and complex geopolitical dynamics in the region.
Terrorism in Israel
On October 6th, a Bedouin-Israeli terrorist opened fire inside a McDonald’s restaurant at Be’er Sheva’s central bus station. Armed with a pistol, the attacker killed Border Police officer Shira Haya Suslik and injured 12 others before being shot and killed by soldiers on the scene. The incident drew swift praise from Hamas and affiliated incitement channels, who characterized the attack as an act of revenge for recent events in Gaza. Their statements glorified the shooting, framing it as part of a broader narrative of resistance, with messages such as: “Be’er Sheva as revenge for Gaza,” and, “The bullets of the freed strike at the necks of the occupiers.”
This attack, while horrific in its impact, fits within a wider context of ongoing threats and responses that have shaped Israeli security and political decision-making.
Politics
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces diplomatic challenges. On October 8th, he blocked Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s trip to the U.S., where Gallant aimed to secure American support for future military action against Iran. Netanyahu set two conditions for the visit: cabinet approval of Israel’s strategy in Iran and a direct conversation with U.S. President Joe Biden.
Tensions with Iran have escalated after recent ballistic missile launches, prompting Israel to consider a retaliatory strike. Gallant’s visit aimed to seek U.S. backing and request strategic resources like interceptors. Meanwhile, violence in Israel continued, with a stabbing attack on October 9th in Hadera by Ahmad Jabarin, an Arab-Israeli. Six people were injured before police apprehended Jabarin. Hamas media praised the attack.
On the same day, Netanyahu spoke with Biden about Israel’s response to Iran and the broader geopolitical impact. U.S. officials voiced concerns about Israel’s military operations in Lebanon. Vice President Kamala Harris joined the conversation, highlighting the U.S. administration’s focus on Israeli defense policy.
In summary, Israel faces escalating security threats at home and complex strategic decisions abroad, with both terror attacks and diplomatic challenges at play.
Gaza – Hamas
In the past week, significant military and political developments have unfolded in the Gaza Strip, as both the IDF and Hamas intensify their actions. The Israeli Air Force has conducted a series of targeted airstrikes, while ground operations have escalated, focusing on Hamas strongholds in Jabaliya and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, Hamas has sought to mobilize the local population and garner international attention.
IDF Operations in Jabaliya
As part of a broader military campaign, the IDF launched extensive air and ground operations targeting key Hamas figures and infrastructure. Strikes on terror command centers resulted in the elimination of several operatives involved in the October 7, 2023 attack. A particular strike in the Jabaliya area, guided by precise intelligence from Military Intelligence and Shin Bet, successfully targeted a command and control complex. This site had been used by Hamas for orchestrating attacks on Israeli civilians and military forces.
In tandem with these operations, the IDF implemented measures to control civilian movement in northern Gaza, setting up dirt embankments around Jabaliya and establishing checkpoints to direct the population southward. Gazan reports suggest that the IDF is employing advanced surveillance methods to prevent unauthorized movements and secure the area.
Hamas’s Response and Efforts to Mobilize
Hamas has responded by urging Gaza residents to remain in their homes and resist evacuation orders from the IDF. The group’s leadership, including Yahya Sinwar, who remains at the center of Hamas’s strategic direction, continues to advocate for violent resistance. Sinwar reportedly issued directives to revive suicide bombings, marking a shift toward more extreme tactics within the group. This move signals an internal consolidation of power around Sinwar’s more militant vision, sidelining voices within Hamas who favored maintaining some political legitimacy.
In an effort to maintain morale and defy Israeli operations, Hamas has also turned to psychological warfare. Leaflets dropped by Israeli forces in Khan Younis, taunting Hamas leaders and urging residents not to enlist in Hamas for financial incentives, reflect ongoing attempts to undermine the group’s influence. However, Hamas continues to call for mass resistance, as well as cyberattacks, emphasizing its commitment to the fight.
Hamas’s leadership has marked the anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attack, which they refer to it as the “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign. Senior officials continue to justify the attack as a necessary response to Israeli actions, praising support from Iran, Lebanon, and other regional allies. They have also used the occasion to emphasize their commitment to armed resistance and to rally Palestinian support for further escalations.
In conclusion, the situation in Gaza remains volatile, with both military operations and political maneuvering intensifying. The IDF’s efforts to dismantle Hamas’s operational capabilities are met with Hamas’s ongoing struggle to continue fighting, both on the battlefield and in the political arena in Judea & Samaria.
Judea & Samaria
In early October, Palestinian leaders marked key war anniversaries and discussed future cooperation. Demonstrations occurred across Judea and Samaria, with protesters burning Israeli and U.S. flags and waving Palestinian, Lebanese, Yemeni, and Hezbollah flags, reflecting war alliances.
Meanwhile, tensions rose as the IDF and Shin Bet targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) figures in Judea and Samaria. Mohammad Abdullah, head of PIJ operations in Nur Shams, Tulkarm, was killed in an airstrike. Abdullah, who took over after his predecessor’s death in August, was responsible for attacks against Israeli forces.
Politically, Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa sought international support for Gaza’s reconstruction, meeting with U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. Mustafa praised President Macron’s stance on halting arms exports to Israel and emphasized the need for international intervention to stop Israeli actions.
Internal Palestinian unity talks also progressed, with Hamas and Fatah leaders meeting in Cairo to discuss forming a unity government for Gaza and Judea and Samaria. Although no formal agreement was reached, they considered joint governance initiatives, encouraged by Egypt.
Additionally, the PA announced a national team for Gaza’s reconstruction, focusing on essential services, infrastructure, and economic recovery. These developments reflect Palestinian efforts in military, political, and internal unity spheres amid ongoing regional diplomacy.
Iran
Iran has escalated its rhetoric, disinformation, and actions in response to Israeli military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei condemned Israeli strikes on “holy sites, schools, mosques, and medical facilities,” likening them to ISIS atrocities. He labeled Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the “Hitler of the modern era” and called for international action against Israel’s leaders and humanitarian aid for Gaza and Lebanon.
Simultaneously, tensions between Iran and Gulf states have risen. Iran warned it would view any Gulf state allowing Israeli airspace access for strikes as an act of aggression. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others urged the U.S. to prevent Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil facilities, fearing retaliatory strikes by Iranian proxies.
Internally, Iran faces renewed debates on its nuclear weapons policy. Forty Iranian MPs requested a review of the country’s nuclear doctrine, with growing conservative support for pursuing nuclear capabilities.
Adding to the uncertainty, Sky News Arabia reported that Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani is under investigation for an intelligence breach, with ties to Israel suspected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed readiness for any scenario with Israel but indicated Iran does not seek war. Meanwhile, Iran shows a preference for a negotiated ceasefire in Gaza, with officials emphasizing military targets in recent strikes.
United States
On October 7th 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four individuals and ten entities involved in operating fake charitable organizations that raise funds for Hamas’ terrorist activities. The list includes Hamid al-Ahmar, a Yemeni businessman residing in Turkey, considered one of Hamas’ most prominent international supporters. He is involved in Hamas’ investment portfolio, which enables the movement’s leaders to maintain their luxurious lifestyles abroad. Additionally, nine of al-Ahmar’s companies in Yemen, the Czech Republic, Lebanon, and Turkey were added to the list.
Others sanctioned include Muhammad Hanoun, a Hamas operative in Italy and founder of the Charity Association for Solidarity with the Palestinian People, a ‘charity’ aimed at funding Hamas’ military wing; Majed al-Zir, Hamas’ senior representative in Germany and one of the movement’s largest fundraisers in Europe; and Adel Duwaik, Hamas’ representative in Austria, who is involved in the movement’s international activities. Also included in the sanctions is Hamas’ al-Intaj Bank in Gaza, which provides financial services to the movement despite not being connected to the international banking network and operating without a license from the Palestinian Authority.
Global Jihad
On October 10th, police officers, the Gideonim 33 combat unit, and the Shin Bet foiled a major bombing plot targeting Tel Aviv’s Azrieli Mall. Five Tayibe residents, affiliated with ISIS, were in advanced stages of planning a car bombing. The group was led by Mahmoud Azzam and Ibrahim Sheikh Youssef, who planned to join ISIS combat zones abroad and recruited three others—Sajed Masarweh, Abdallah Bransi, and Abd al-Karim Bransi. The group watched ISIS bombing videos and discussed explosives needed for the attack. Weapons were seized during the arrests, and authorities highlighted the threat of Israeli citizens plotting attacks driven by ISIS ideology.
International
In response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, several global events have heightened concerns about security, diplomatic relations, and international law. The Norwegian Police Security Service recently raised the terror threat level from “moderate” to “high,” citing increased risks to Jewish and Israeli targets within the country. This shift is seen as a direct consequence of the ongoing war in the region.
France
European leaders have taken decisive action to address the broader implications of the Middle East crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron announced an international conference in Paris aimed at supporting Lebanon. The conference will focus on humanitarian aid and strengthening Lebanon’s armed forces and institutions, crucial to stabilizing the country amidst regional turbulence. No similar conference was announced to support Israel, to strengthen its citizens after a year of attacks on multiple fronts.
UK
Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized the need for a political solution in Lebanon, urging for a ceasefire and warning against turning Lebanon into a situation similar to Gaza. He further highlighted the importance of collaboration with the United States to de-escalate tensions and pursue peace.
Germany
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a clear stance during a Bundestag session, reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to providing Israel with weapons. He confirmed that new shipments would follow soon, underscoring Germany’s support for Israel’s defense amid the ongoing war.
Italy
Diplomatic tensions rose when Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto accused Israel of committing a “war crime” in its alleged attack on UNIFIL positions in southern Lebanon. Italian officials claim the attack was deliberate, aiming to prevent Italian forces from observing Israel’s actions in the region.
United Nations
The United Nations also weighed in, with a committee led by Navi Pillay accusing Israel of systematically destroying Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure, actions they describe as war crimes. A full report is expected to be published later. Pillay has already been scrutinized by watchdogs as extremely biased, previously making harsh public statements against Israel, raising fears of a biased cangaroo committee.
In other developments, both the United States and France stressed the importance of strengthening Lebanon’s military to enforce a key United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at preserving peace on Lebanon’s border with Israel. U.S. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood emphasized the need for international focus on fortifying Lebanese state institutions to maintain stability.
Adding to security concerns, a Cyprus court detained eight Syrians on charges of financing a terrorist organization in Syria. The arrests followed a police raid in Limassol and Paphos after receiving a tip-off, though details of the organization involved remain undisclosed.
Jordan
In Jordan, there are calls on social media for the masses to besiege the Israeli embassy in Amman, in response to the ‘siege on Jabalia.
Egypt
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati had a phone conversation with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The three discussed developments in Lebanon, with the Egyptian minister expressing Cairo’s support for Lebanon, the necessity for an immediate ceasefire, reducing tensions, strengthening Lebanon’s institutions, and implementing UN Resolution 1701.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Riyadh. During the meeting, the two discussed the relations between their countries and regional developments.
Qatar
During a visit to Qatar, Iran’s Foreign Minister, in an Al Jazeera interview, stressed Iran’s preparedness for any scenario but emphasized no interest in war. He claimed Israel seeks regional conflict and aims to involve other nations. Despite tensions, indirect communication with the U.S. continues via third-party countries. Regarding a potential Israeli attack, the minister said Iran would assess the action carefully before deciding on a measured response.
Yemen – Houthis
The Houthi movement reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian cause, with leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi vowing to escalate actions against Israeli interests. In a speech marking the Gaza war anniversary, he praised Palestinian resilience against “Israeli aggression” and the “Axis of Resistance.” He claimed the Houthis had launched over 1,000 missiles and drones, targeted 193 vessels tied to Israel, the U.S., and the U.K., and intercepted 11 U.S. drones. Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, at Yemen’s “Million March,” echoed solidarity with Palestinians and allies, warning of future attacks on Israeli interests. The Houthis, like Hezbollah, view all of Israel as occupied, not just Gaza and Judea and Samaria.
Syria & Iraq
Intelligence reports reveal that Iran’s first militia in Iraq sent 29 truckloads of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, concealed beneath food and blankets to avoid detection. The Iraqi government allegedly funded the shipment, which included French-made arms. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) responded with airstrikes in Syria, targeting locations tied to these activities. A strike in Homs hit a facility preparing aid trucks for Lebanon, injuring four. Other strikes targeted a military post near Hama and a weapons depot in Tal Mana. Iran’s ongoing arms transfers to Lebanon increase tensions on Israel’s northern front, complicating diplomatic and operational responses, especially with claims of Red Cross involvement in the smuggling operation.