Iran expels one third of the IAEA inspectors, heavily criticized * Iran aspires to create a “second Hezbollah” in Lebanon * Head of Mossad reveals the scope of foiled Iranian terrorism plots against Jews and Israelis * Palestinian President Abbas once again makes anti-Semitic remarks.
Iran expels IAEA inspectors, triggering tensions with the West
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General, Rafael Grossi, issued a statement on September 16 accusing Iran of removing “about one third of the core group of the Agency’s most experienced inspectors designated for Iran.” While it is formally permitted, it hampers the IAEA’s ability to conduct its work in Iran. Grossi strongly condemned this decision and called on Iran to “return to a path of cooperation.” Without it, he says the IAEA will not be able to “discharge effectively its verification mandate in Iran and provide credible assurances that nuclear material and activities in Iran are for peaceful purposes.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded to the IAEA, claiming it is within Iran’s rights under their bilateral agreement, the INFCIRC 214, and accused Western countries of attempting to sabotage their relations. “Iran will continue to show positive cooperation with the Agency’s unplanned visits in accordance with the framework of the agreements,” said the announcement.
This is not the first time Iran has placed obstacles, hindering the IAEA’s ability to effectively inspect its nuclear sites. Through those actions, Iran hopes to improve its bargaining position in the nuclear negotiations with the superpowers. However, the IAEA’s mandate is already limited to catching Iran in the act in real time in case it decides to break out to nuclear weapons. At least four undeclared military sites whose cases are still pending, and other locations are blocked to IAEA inspectors. Even with respect to declared and known sites, IAEA inspectors cannot carry out visits anywhere, anytime but must coordinate them with Iran who has the liberty to refuse inspection, as it has done multiple times in the past. The flawed inspection mechanism is one the reasons behind Israel’s objection to the current form of the JCPOA (2015 Nuclear Deal) and the limited mandate of the NPT Safeguards Agreement.
Iran’s increasing audacity stems from its growing confidence and its improving international and regional status. By joining the BRICS bloc of developing nations, signing of the MoU with Saudi Arabia, warming of relations with the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt, Assad’s re-acceptance into the Arab League, Hezbollah’s growing confidence, and the informal understanding with the Biden administration on the nuclear file, all indicate the West’s unwillingness to confront Iran head-on. A manifestation of these understanding is the recent hostage swap deal with the US, where Iran also saw at least $6 billion USD of unfrozen funds from South Korea and several more billions from Iraq. This is a de facto recognition of Iran as a nuclear threshold state, in return for procrastinating its breakout to the bomb.
The following are recommendations for action against Iran’s increasing boldness and malign activity, in both the nuclear plane and international terrorism:
- Influencing public opinion and decision-makers while underscoring the gravity of the situation, primarily the US administration, as well as leading Western countries, Russia, China, and Arab countries who share Israel’s concern.
- Continuing Israel’s force buildup, military drills, and preparations for action in Iran, while coordinating the element of deterrence with the US, including statements that the US will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and that all options, including military, are on the table.
- Expanding diplomatic efforts on all fronts, including normalization efforts vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and Arab countries who share Israel’s concern, clarifying the messaging to European countries, and leveraging the relations with Russia and China to moderate their assistance to Iran.
- Potentially encouraging the Iranian people in their protests against the regime while highlighting the advantages of policy or regime change.
- Intensifying the clandestine activity to hamper Iran’s militarization efforts and its proxies’ force buildup.
Iran attempts to smuggle arms into Hamas in Lebanon
According to a report in Iran International, Lebanese authorities have made a series of arrests in Lebanon, exposing an Iranian network that aimed at arming Hamas infrastructure in the country. One of those arrested is Michel Elias Francis, a former Lebanese officer who was coordinating behind the scenes on behalf of Hamas. The report says Iran is seeking to “establish a second Hezbollah”, an effort led by the IRGC’s Qods Force. Hamas is more popular and seen as more effective among Palestinian residents of Lebanon, and Iran is using it to its advantage to promote terrorism networks in the country.
Head of Mossad vowing not to allow Iran to continue its proliferation of terrorism against Jewish and Israeli targets: “we foiled 27 Iranian plots this year alone”
The Head of the Mossad, David Barnea, exposed information on Israel’s thwarting of Iran’s proliferation of global terrorism against Jewish and Israeli targets, which he claims come “from the highest echelon of the Iranian regime.” He made statements during the Herzliya Conference.
Barnea exposed, “just in the last year we thwarted 27 attempted terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis all around the world… in Europe, Africa, the Far East and South America” together with other Israeli partners and partners overseas. These were squads caught in the act, ready for action, with ammunition and a relevant target.” He said there has been a notable increase in Iran’s attempts to harm Jews and Israelis, an ongoing effort orchestrated by what he called “the Terroristic Republic of Iran… a state-sponsored and state-planned terrorist effort, directly guided by the Iranian Leader [Khamenei].”
He warns, “once we proved beyond doubt that all of these attempted terrorist attacks were ordered by Iran, it is time to claim a different kind of price from Iran.” According to Barnea, Iran was “fortunate” enough to have these attacks foiled, because until now the price was only paid by the operatives on the ground, but from now on, he warned, attempts to hurts Jews or Israelis “in any way whatsoever” will entail heavy consequences for Iran, and action “against the Iranians who sent the terrorists as well as decision-makers, from the operator to the highest echelon of decision-makers, and I mean it.” He warns that Iran will be exposed to these actions “even deep inside Iran, in the heart of Tehran”.
According to Barnea, Iran feels “excessive confidence” in carrying out these terrorist attempts for the following five reasons:
- Assistance to Russia with attack UAVs, “we know they intended to sell them [Iran to Russia] short-range and long-range missiles, a deal which was thwarted. I have a feeling they intend to sell them other types of ammunition, which will probably be thwarted as well.” He says he fears Russia will provide Iran in return “advanced ammunition” which could jeopardize Israel’s very existence. Our ISB edition from H1 June 2023 analyzed this issue extensively and issued a similar warning.
- Regional agreements with Saudi Arabia, “along other agreements that will probably materialize too.” He waved off these agreements as temporary and driven by interest, rather than strategic.
- Violent and brutal oppression of domestic protests in Iran, “those who almost led to the collapse of the Iranian regime”, he adds.
- Selling oil, mainly to China, which contributes to the balanced payments in the Iranian economy. “I believe China is making a strategic error here, since even if Iran will be strong economically in the short run, in the medium run it will lead the Middle East into destabilization which will lead to a spike in oil prices… which will damage China first and foremost.”
- Practice of “hostage diplomacy” as means to bargain its way in international negotiations.
Iranian terrorism persists, he says, because the Iranian regime still considers it as a lucrative means to obtain its ultimate objective – the preservation of the regime.
Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant unravelled an Iranian military airfield in southern Lebanon
Minister Gallant’s revelation in the Herzliya Conference sheds light on Iran’s efforts to militarize the area and turn it into a heavily-armed Iranian front, a stone’s throw away from the Israeli border. MoD satellite pictures show runways designated to support aircraft activity in a closed military zone in Kalaat Jabbur, Lebanon. The airfield has both Hezbollah and Iranian flags on it, but no Lebanese flags.
Gallant urged: “We must be vigilant and prudent with the finger on the pulse. Iran is currently the most significant threat to Israel, regional stability and World Order. Iran’s objective is a war of attrition against Israel, on all of its borders, while continuing to strive to obtain nuclear weapons.” He issued a warning to Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hezbollah: he “seeks to portray himself as the ‘Defender of Lebanon’ but in fact is holding Lebanon and its citizens as hostages to promote Iranian and Shi’ite interests. If he missteps, he will become the ‘destroyer of Lebanon’.”
Outrage over PA Chairman Abbas’ Anti-Semitic Speech
In a speech given to the Fatah Central Committee in August and posted on September 7, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said that Adolf Hitler killed European Jews not because of anti-Semitism, but because of their “social functions” in society, such as money lending. “These people were fought because of their social function related to money, usury. From Hitler’s point of view, they were sabotaging, and therefore he hated them.” The remarks were translated and distributed by MEMRI – the Middle East Media Research Institute.
These remarks were subject to heavy criticism and condemnation on the part of the EU, Germany, France, the United States, and Israel. Deborah Lipstadt, the US special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, said she was appalled by what she called Abbas’ “hateful, antisemitic remarks” and called for an immediate apology. Steffen Seibert, Germany’s ambassador to Israel, said Abbas’ speech was “an insult to the memory of millions of murdered men, women and children. The Palestinians deserve to hear the historical truth from their leader, not such distortions.” An EU statement said the comments “trivialize the Holocaust and thereby fuel antisemitism.” Dani Dayan, Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial chairman, said “these reprehensible remarks must be unequivocally condemned by global leaders,” accusing Abbas of Holocaust denial and promoting anti-Semitic stereotypes.
This is hardly the first time Abbas has made such comments, which exposes his deep anti-Semitic philosophy dating back to his PhD studies in Moscow, in the 1980s. Researcher Isabella Tabarovsky said at the IDSF-JCPA conference in Jerusalem, “The Oslo Accords At 30”,[1] that the dissertation Abbas authored was never published, and is kept from the public by the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow, that was headed by Yevgeny Primakov, associated with the Soviet authorities and the intelligence service, and who eventually became the Soviet prime minister. A considerable part of modern-day anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic accusations find their way back to Soviet propaganda, according to Tabarovsky. The abstract, available publicly, reveals Abbas’ influence by this Soviet effort – talking about Zionism as a colonialist project, demonizing Israel, and propagating conspiracy theories on the Zionist leadership’s alleged cooperation with Nazi Germany between 1933-1945. He repeated these points in his 1984 book, “The Other Side: The Secret Relationship Between Nazim and Zionism”, based on the doctoral thesis. He claimed the widely-accepted fact that 6 million Jews were exterminated in the Holocaust was wildly overblown, a claim that qualifies as Holocaust denial.
Abbas made several anti-Semitic comments in the near past – such as that Ashkenazi European Jews are not Jewish; his August 2022 speech, where he said Hitler “defended Germany by these Jews who ruined its society”; and his remarks standing next to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, that Israel committed “50 holocausts” against the Palestinians, which was strongly rebuked by the Chancellor later.
The Monitor
H1 September 2023 in numbers
Judea and Samaria
Palestinians: 4 killed terrorists
Sep 1 – 1 killed (riots in the village of Al-Aqabah)
Sep 5 – 1 killed (shooting attack in Nur Shams)
Sep 5 – 1 killed (shooting attack in Jericho)
Sep 9 – 1 killed (riots in El-Arub)
Israelis: 0 terror victims, 3 injured
Selection of IDF counterterrorism operations:
- September 5 | Nur-Shams (Tulkarm region) | A combined force of IDF, ISA and Police raided a weapon silo that included IEDs designated to harm Israelis. During the raid, Palestinian militants opened fire at the Israeli soldiers, who fired back. One Palestinian militant affiliated with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist group was killed as a result. The forces made efforts not to involve civilians.
- September 9 | El-Arub (Hebron region) | Palestinian militants attacked IDF troops positioned in their post with Molotov cocktails. These troops are present in the area to safeguard Israeli civilians and prevent clashes. The soldiers used riot control measures, then live ammunition to neutralize the assailants. One Palestinian was killed.
Terrorist attacks against Jews:
- September 5 | Northern Jordan Valley (near Argaman juncture) | A Palestinian militant opened fired at a Border Police officer. The forces received news of a shooting attack and went scanning the area to track down the suspect. The militant opened fire at them and injured one officer. He was subsequently neutralized by the troops.
- September 12 | Attempted assassination in Huwara | Two Israeli civilians were attacked while driving on Road 60 that crosses this Palestinian village. They received serious head injuries and shrapnel injuries on other parts of their body. First responders who arrived at the scene managed to save their lives. Driving through Road 60 has proven deadly for Israelis in the past, including the murder of the two brothers Yagel and Hallel Yaniv and countless other Israelis.
[1] Watch the conference here: https://www.facebook.com/habithonistimEN/videos/6950944914923731