Israel Weekly War Summary Week #58 | November 10 -November 16 , 2024

Overview

• A humanitarian aid convoy to Gaza which was coordinated with the IDF was stopped at a military check point, and upon inspection discovered that weapons were being smuggling in the aid trucks.
• France, Britain, and Germany are considering reinstating full sanctions on Iran following nuclear agreement violations.
• A report revealed Iranian and Qatari financial support for South Africa’s ANC party that was bankrupt weeks before South Africa filed the case against Israel at the ICC, which accused Israel of genocide in Gaza.
• The Houthis claimed attacks on U.S. Navy vessels, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, using drones and missiles. The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed intercepting multiple attacks without casualties or damages.
• President-elect Donald Trump approved a ceasefire plan with Hezbollah during a meeting with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer at Mar-a-Lago.
• Israeli Minister Ron Dermer met with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Biden’s envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein to discuss a resolution to the war in Lebanon. According to Hochstein, there has been progress, with Israel’s primary demand being total operational freedom in Lebanon after the end of hostilities, citing the failure of UN Resolution 1701.
• Current Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the decision made by the previous minister, Yoav Gallant, and announced 7,000 additional draft orders for ultra-Orthodox individuals, citing a shortage of 10,000 soldiers, which include 7,500 combat soldiers.
• Iraqi National Security Advisor, Qasim al-Araji, visited Tehran and met with Iranian officials, likely to discuss planned attacks on Israel from Iraqi territory and general military cooperation.
• According to an Axios report, the Israeli airstrike on October 25-26 which targeted Iran’s TALEGHAN-2 nuclear facility in Parchin, and destroyed a nuclear plant producing explosive lenses and materials for atomic bombs.
• Iranian sources told Sky Newsthat Iran has postponed its third major attack against Israel, code-named “The True Promise 3,” awaiting negotiations with President-elect Trump.
• Elon Musk reportedly met Iranian UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravanito discuss easing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

International

• From November 18-22, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold a summit in Vienna. France, Britain, and Germany are considering reinstating full sanctions on Iran following nuclear agreement violations.
• Israel submitted an exceptional request to the International Criminal Court (ICC)regarding potential arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. The request questions the impartiality of Slovenian Judge Betty Hohler, recently appointed to the tribunal, due to her prior involvement with the international prosecution office and possible access to classified information.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğanannounced the severance of diplomatic ties with Israel, though Israeli officials were unaware of such action.
• Syria reopened its consulate in Rome as part of Italy’s efforts to recalibrate EU policy on Syria.
• 88 Democratic members of Congress urged U.S. President Joe Bidento impose sanctions on Israeli ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, citing their roles in policies allegedly promoting settler violence and weakening the Palestinian Authority.
• China welcomed expanded Saudi-Iran ties, nearly two years after mediating the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two nations.
• A report by the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy alleged that Iran and Qatar sent financial support for South Africa’s ANC party which bailed the party out of bankruptcy just weeks before South Africa charged Israel with genocide in Gaza at the International Criminal Court.

Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Riyadh:

• Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for Israel to respect Iranian sovereignty and cease its actions in Gaza, citing 150,000 martyrs in Gaza.
• Military and diplomatic collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Iran is increasing, with high-level visits and potential joint naval exercises. Fayyad al-Ruwaili, chief of staff of the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia, travelled to Iran at the head of a high-ranking military delegation. He met with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Bagheri in an effort to bolster “defense ties” between the countries.
• Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref attended the Arab-Islamic Summit, and efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are ongoing.

Gaza Strip

Diplomatic

• S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel to expand the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. He also suggested allowing private commercial trucks, not just those from states or humanitarian NGOs, and to implement pauses in the fighting to allow facilitate the transfer of more humanitarian assistance.
• The Kerem Shalom crossing was officially reopened for humanitarian aid despite concerns over a potential U.S. arms embargo. Secretary of State Antony Blinken** and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel against limiting humanitarian aid as part of the implementation of the “generals’ plan”. On Monday, 125 trucks entered through the Erez and Kerem Shalom crossings, with an additional 36 through Route 96. Approximately 900 trucks are ready to enter. After Blinken’s meeting with Minister Ron Dermer in Washington, he announced that there would be no sanctions or weapons embargo on Israel, citing significant steps by Israel to allow food into Gaza.

• As part of the Hamas-Fatah Talks, Hamas reportedly offered Fatah full control over Gaza, including security and border crossings, during Cairo meetings in early November. Fatah has yet to respond, with further discussions planned.
• Following the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Khalil Al-Hayya is expected to succeed him as the head of the political bureau in Gaza. Al-Hayya currently leads ceasefire negotiations and discussions with Fatah.

• The IDF released old footage of Hamas militants torturing Gaza residents in Jabalia, Gaza predating the war, exposing systematic human rights abuses against suspected civilian dissenters.
• The military wing of Islamic Jihad published a video showing hostage Alexander Trofanov, reading a script under duress that was critical of Israel’s handling of the war.
• An Italian plane delivered over 15 tons of aid to Gaza.

Operational

The IAF hit a rocket launcher that was ready to target Israel which was hidden in a tent in the humanitarian zone of Khan Yunis.

• The IDF showcased three robot systems that it has used to clear out tunnels of explosives, gather intelligence, and neutralize threats.
• Smuggled weapons were discovered by the IDF at a checkpoint in a humanitarian convoy traveling from Northern Gaza to the South. This abuse of the humanitarian convoys forces the IDF to take put more precautionary measures in place to prevent these abuses which delay the delivery of humanitarian aid .
• The Israeli Air Force, killed Mohammad Abu Sukheil, the Islamic Jihad’s operations chief, at a command center in a former school in northern Gaza.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• Amid ongoing Israeli strikes, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, responsible for ceasefire negotiations, accepted the latest American proposal but rejected Israel’s demands for operational freedom post-conflict and a new international oversight mechanism for implementing UN Resolution 1701. This would strengthen Lebanese sovereignty, limiting Israel’s freedom of action in southern Lebanon.
• President-elect Donald Trump approved a ceasefire plan with Hezbollah during a meeting with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer at Mar-a-Lago. The plan involves withdrawing Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, destroying terror infrastructure with Lebanese Army assistance, and an IDF withdrawal beyond the Blue Line within 60 days.
• Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that: “There will be no ceasefire or pause in Lebanon. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force until achieving our objectives.” The objectives include dismantling Hezbollah, moving its forces north of the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of northern Israeli residents.
• Russia, relying on Iranian assistance in Ukraine, has refused to prevent weapon smuggling to Hezbollah, through territory it controls as reflected in comments by the Russian Special Envoy to Syria. This came after, Minister Ron Dermer discussed security arrangements, including the possibility of the U.S. lifting sanctions on some Russian companies in Syria in exchange for Russia limiting Hezbollah’s operations. Russia requested Israel avoid airstrikes near its Khmeimim Airbase in Syria after recent Israeli strikes in Latakia where Russia has a presence.
• During his visit to Washington, Israeli Minister Ron Dermer met with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Biden’s envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein to discuss a resolution to the war in Lebanon. According to Hochstein, there has been progress, with Israel’s primary demand being total operational freedom in Lebanon, even after the end of hostilities, citing the failure of UN Resolution 1701.
• Meanwhile, Ali Akbar Velayati a senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, visited Beirut after his trip to Damascus, meeting with Speaker Berri to promote Iranian interests in Lebanon. However, his team faced a security check at the Beirut Airport, which was viewed as  a humiliation and a sign of Iran’s weakening influence in Lebanon.
• Within Lebanon, opposition to Hezbollah is growing and becoming a consensus as the organization weakens under the Israeli military pressure.
• Without an agreement, the IDF plans to station three divisions permanently to defend the northern border. The Chief of Staff approved the next phase of maneuvers to secure the second line of villages as no agreement seems within reach.

Operational

• On Friday, the Israeli Air Force carried out four waves of airstrikes in Beirut’s Dahiya neighborhood. The first two waves targeted terror infrastructure, including weapon depots and command centers, in the morning. The third wave took place in the afternoon, and the fourth was completed by evening, maintaining relentless pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Among the targets were a weapons depot situated beneath a building near a mosque, two schools, a hospital, and a fire station. On Saturday morning, the fifth wave of strikes in Dahiya was completed, followed shortly by evacuation orders for three additional areas in preparation for a sixth wave of strikes, which was completed by 2:00 PM. Evacuation orders were also issued in Tyre ahead of additional airstrikes.
• Units from the Golani Brigade and 188th Armored Brigade, under Division 36, expanded their operations into a new line of villages. They uncovered and destroyed underground infrastructure, mortars, and rocket launchers targeting Israel.  They found a Hezbollah weapons depot containing RPG launchers, sniper rifles, Kalashnikovs, explosives, and heavy machine guns.
• The IDF instructed residents of 14 villages in Lebanon to evacuate north toward the Awali River to avoid being used by Hezbollah as human shields.
• Hezbollah claimed responsibility for several attacks, including rocket launches, against advancing forces near the villages of Yaron and Marun al-Ras, possibly to prevent the encirclement of Bint Jbeil.
• Following a seven-day operation, IDF forces destroyed a 1-km-long terror tunnel beneath a cemetery in Lebanon near Marun al-Ras with exit points near the border.
• Between Thursday and Friday, 15 rocket launchers were destroyed in Lebanon, including the one that targeted central Israel on Wednesday.
• Hezbollah launched attacks including 11 targeting military concentrations along the border, such as in Kiryat Shmona. One UAV struck a house in Nahariya, causing significant damage. A direct hit in Nahariya’s industrial area killed two and injured two others.
• Israeli intelligence has revealed extensive Hezbollah activity in the village of Kila, where most buildings are used for storing weapons, rocket launchers, or tunnel operations. This explains the prolonged clearing process and the dangers of remaining in the area even after its capture due to potential hidden cells and booby traps. The IDF is in the process of removing the extensive Hezbollah infrastructure in the villages near the border that function as de facto Hezbollah bases.
• Over the past week, the Israeli Air Force struck 300 targets in Lebanon, including 40 in the Dahiya area of Beirut, effectively destroying most production sites in the city.
• Home Front Command Chief Rafi Milo visited a kindergarten in Neshar following an incident where no alarms were activated during an attack, which almost ended in a catastrophe. The kindergarten teacher evacuated the children proactively to a shelter after which a UAV exploded in the kindergarten. The visit aimed to acknowledge the teacher’s actions which prevented an incident like Majdal Shams in which 12 children were murdered.

Domestic Arena

IDF Manpower Shortage

• Current Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the decision made by the previous minister, Yoav Gallant, and announced 7,000 additional draft orders for ultra-Orthodox individuals, citing a shortage of 10,000 soldiers, including 7,500 for combat roles. This sparked criticism from ultra-Orthodox leaders, with a senior figure in United Torah Judaism accusing the Likud party of declaring war on the Ultra-Orthodox.
• IDF reports that combat forces are at 83% of required strength to manage the current conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. This percentage is projected to drop to 81% by 2025 due to declining motivation for reserve service. Extending mandatory service to 36 months could raise readiness to 96%.
• Technical units for combat supporting jobs (logistics, ammunition, etc.) operate at 74% capacity, while the driving unit is at 66%. A critical shortage of patrol drivers, essential for security in Judea and Samaria was noted in the State Comptroller’s report from last year.
• Between July and October, 900 ultra-Orthodox recruits joined the army, an 85% increase from last year but still short of the target of 1,300.
• The IDF plans to issue 7,000 draft orders to ultra-Orthodox men by March 2025 to establish the “Hashmonaim Brigade” and fill gaps, particularly in technical units.
• 900 arrest warrants are being prepared for ultra-Orthodox men who failed to appear for their initial and secondary summonses.
• In order to deal with the shortage, the IDF plans to extend the exemption age for combat roles from 40 to 45, revoking exemptions for thousands, including those with trauma or mental health conditions. To date, 6,000 exemptions have been revoked.
• The shortage is also a result of injuries. Since the beginning of the conflict:12,000 soldiers have been injured, with one-third suffering from psychological trauma. 34% of all casualties are reservists.
• Three suspects were arrested on Saturday night in connection with the launching of two flares at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea.

Judea and Samaria

• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Jordanian King Abdullah II during the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh. Discussions focused on ending Israeli “aggression” in Gaza and maintaining the status of Islamic and Christian holy sites.
• Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbasworked to rebuild relations with Trump through intermediaries, including Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, expressing support for a two-state solution and a non-confrontational Palestinian state. According to a New York Times piece, Abbas met with Boulos and Bishara Bahbah, who heads Arab Americans for Trump and helped orchestrate a letter Abbas sent to Trump wishing him well after a July assassination attempt.
• Israeli soldiers seized 13 M-16 rifles during a border operation targeting weapons smuggling.
• IDF troops thwarted a stabbing attack. The attacker was neutralized with no further casualties.

Iraq and Syria

Syria

The IDF increased its attacks in Syria and also made sure to mention them publicly to deter both further aggression and cooperation of the Syrian regime with Hezbollah. So far, the Al Assad regime has not taken a proactive role to escalate the aggression against Israel other than indirect support which included hosting Pro-Iranian militias and acting as a land bridge for weapons deliveries to Hezbollah.

• The Israeli Air Force conducted strikes in Syria, including one in Damascus, killing at least two senior members of Islamic Jihad earlier this week. The IDF acknowledged responsibility for strikes targeting smuggling routes between Syria and Lebanon to prevent the transfer of weapons.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader’s Special Envoy, Ali Larijani, travelled to Damascus to meet with Al Assad when according to unconfirmed reports in an Iranian site, a nearby building was hit with three air strikes. The strikes targeted assets and the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• The Israeli Airforce hit targets in Syria including the Qusayr crossing between Lebanon and Syria, striking Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, to disrupt weapon smuggling military structures and Islamic Jihad command centers, killing 15 and injuring 16, according to Syrian reports. For the first time, Israel released footage of these strikes to deter Syrian President Assad from aiding terror factions.
• The IDF struck key Hezbollah positions in Qusayr, killing Hezbollah operative Salim Ayyash, who was wanted for the 2005 Beirut truck bombing that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
• The U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes in eastern Syria on weapons depots and logistics hubs of Shiite militias.

Iraq

• Shiite militias in Iraq claimed seven attacks against Israel in one day, their second-highest daily total.
• Shiite militias from Iraq claimed responsibility for two drone attacks, one targeting central Israel. The Israeli Air Force intercepted several drones from the east, including over Syrian airspace, where Israel maintains full operational freedom. Additionally, a drone was intercepted near Eilat by an Israeli naval vessel.
• On Wednesday, a U.S. delegation arrived in Baghdad to “calm tensions” and prevent an Iranian attack from Iranian or Iraqi territory.
• Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji visited Tehran and met with Iranian officials, likely to discuss general military cooperation and to plan attacks on Israel from Iraqi territory.

Iran

• According to an Axios report, the Israeli airstrike on October 25-26 which targeted Iran’s TALEGHAN-2 nuclear facility in Parchin, and destroyed a nuclear plant producing explosive lenses and materials for atomic bombs. Although the facility resumed operations in early 2024, it was engaged in covert nuclear activities not covered by the 2015 nuclear agreement.
• According to the New York Times, CIA operative Asif W. Rahmanis suspected of leaking classified Pentagon documents related to Israeli operations in Iran. Rahman worked outside the U.S. and had top-level security clearance. Court documents and sources indicate Rahman accessed highly sensitive information, similar to many CIA personnel involved in classified projects.
• Iranian sources told Sky Newsthat Iran has postponed its third major attack against Israel, code-named “The True Promise 3,” awaiting negotiations with President-elect Trump.
• Elon Musk reportedly met Iranian UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravanito discuss easing tensions between Washington and Tehran.
• The Iranian Revolutionary Guards reported killing four individuals and arresting 12 others in Sistan and Baluchestan, accusing them of collaborating with Israel.
• The U.S. imposed sanctions on 26 entities, ships, and individuals involved in selling Iranian oil to fund the Revolutionary Guards.
• A U.S. delegation in Baghdad this week warned Iran that the further involvement of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria would escalate regional tensions as Israeli airstrikes in Syria have reached levels that could endanger the Assad regime in its tenuous grip of power.
• The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Iran to discuss its nuclear program. Iran faces challenges after Israeli strikes damaged its long-range ballistic missile production and left it without advanced defense systems.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking in English with Persian subtitles, appealed to the Iranian public. He emphasized that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fears his people more than he fears Israel. Netanyahu highlighted that Iran’s previous attack on Israel cost Iran $2.3 billion, funds that could have been used for infrastructure development within the country. He reiterated the Iranian people’s right to freedom, which he said the regime systematically denies.

Yemen

• The Houthis also launched a ballistic missile intercepted near Eilat.
• Abdul-Malik al-Houthi stated that between November 7-14, his forces attacked 29 military and civilian ships in the Red Sea using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
• The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on U.S. Navy vessels, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, using drones and missiles. The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed intercepting multiple attacks without casualties or damages. The US carried out retaliatory strikes targeting Houthi positions following the Houthi aggression.

Fallen Soldier

Of Blessed Memory