Overview
- Following Israel’s strike on October 25-26, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the Iranian National Security Council to plan a counterattack.
- Recent Israeli strikes are estimated to have destroyed all of Iran’s strategic air defense systems, including S-300 batteries and other long-range defense systems. Iran now relies only on short- and medium-range defenses, and the battery protecting Khomeini Airport was destroyed.
- In response to a drone strike on the Prime Minister’s residence, Israel’s cabinet decided on another retaliatory strike, possibly targeting Iranian air defenses again.
- The Lebanese government is working toward a ceasefire and peace agreement. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with the UNIFIL commander to discuss implementing UN Resolution 1701.
Iran
- Following Israel’s strike on October 25-26, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the Iranian National Security Council to plan a counterattack. This may involve ballistic missile launches from Iran and additional missile and drone strikes by Iraqi Shia militias. The militias possess advanced drones and ballistic missiles.
- Enhanced U.S. Presence: Israel has been reinforced with U.S. THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense systems, American destroyers, and additional fighter jets and bombers. The Pentagon recently announced the deployment of more U.S. forces in the region, allowing potential joint operations between U.S. and Israeli air forces to strike Iranian and Iraqi capabilities.
- Nuclear Tensions: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to visit Iran. Iran seeks economic relief through a new agreement with the West but faces internal pressure to cancel its prohibition on nuclear weapon development (including pressuring Khamenei to reverse the fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons) to deter further Israeli attacks.
Domestic Pressures in Iran
Iran is facing severe economic pressures, with rising inflation and fuel costs impacting public sentiment. The Iranian rial is devaluing, and the defense budget is set to increase by 200% next year to address security needs. Iranian officials are under pressure from religious leaders to improve the country’s economic conditions amidst mounting domestic dissatisfaction. This situation combined with the possibility of Israeli attacks on critical infrastructure such as oil fields and nuclear sites could be destabilizing for the regime as a whole.
Details about the Israeli Attack and Possible Iranian Reponses
Analysts believe Khamenei faces limited options due to the loss of defense assets and diminished deterrence. Iran is reportedly in a defensive posture, looking to reassert strength.
Recent Israeli strikes are estimated to have destroyed all of Iran’s strategic air defense systems, including S-300 batteries and other long-range defense systems. Iran now relies only on short- and medium-range defenses. The battery protecting Khomeini Airport was destroyed.
The airstrikes targeted five industrial areas near Tehran, including at least two facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) involved in manufacturing ballistic missiles and advanced weaponry. Twelve “planetary mixers,” used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, which were imported from China were destroyed. It will take Iran a minimum of a year to replace them. This disruption will prevent Iran from producing new ballistic missiles for Hezbollah, the Houthis, or even Russia, thereby, weakening the “axis of resistance.”
At least one drone factory was struck, along with a symbolic attack on the Parchin site, which has been linked to Iran’s nuclear activities.
These strikes have left Iran exposed and vulnerable, allowing the Israeli Air Force to more easily intercept ballistic missiles launched from this area in future barrages, potentially even destroying launchers and exposing key strategic facilities such as oil fields, gas fields, and petrochemical facilities in Khuzestan.
According to the NYT, the Iranian government is planning to launch its counterattack, not from Iran itself, but from Iraq, which is expected to include the firing of hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.
Israel’s Preparation for Further Attacks
- The IDF established a new, intelligence division that connects the Military Intelligence directly with the Air Force, suggesting Israel may shift to sustained attacks on Iranian territory.
- In response to a drone strike on the Prime Minister’s residence, Israel’s cabinet decided on another retaliatory strike, possibly targeting Iranian air defenses again. Such a restrained and strategic response is expected to provide Israel with increased international legitimacy for additional strikes, potentially including nuclear facilities.
- IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi conducted a situation assessment, stating that only a fraction of the Air Force’s capabilities have been used so far, successfully targeting Iran’s strategic systems. This suggests that Israel could intensify its strikes on Iran in the future as it deems warranted.
Lebanon
Diplomatic
- Lebanese Truce Efforts: The Lebanese government is working toward a ceasefire and peace agreement. Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with the UNIFIL commander to discuss implementing Resolution 1701, which would require the Lebanese government to confront Hezbollah directly.
- U.S. representatives Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss a potential ceasefire with Lebanon. Hochstein requested that Lebanon announce a unilateral ceasefire, while Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s need for operational freedom to enforce the agreement.
- Hochstein presented a ceasefire proposal, which included the following terms: Hezbollah and other groups would cease actions against Israel, and Israel would refrain from offensive operations in Lebanon. All weapons production and importation would be under the supervision of the Lebanese government, which would also be responsible for disarming Hezbollah and other non-official military groups. If the agreement is fully implemented, the IDF would withdraw from Lebanon within seven days; if not, Israel would retain the right to act within Lebanon.
Domestic Lebanese Strife
Since the start of Israel’s ground maneuver, there has been increasing public opposition in Lebanon against Hezbollah’s activities. More Lebanese public figures, including Christian parliament members, journalists, and well-known public figures, are openly criticizing the alliance with Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. They have felt compelled to speak out, and more secure in doing so, since the IDF has significantly degraded and embarrassed Hezbollah on the battlefield.
Operational
Synopsis: As Hezbollah’s main command structure was destroyed with their leadership in previous Israeli attacks, the organization is no longer able to coordinate attacks from a central headquarters.
The attacks have lacked a broader strategy and are generally guided by field commanders who do not have a broader vision. Hezbollah has avoided direct confrontation with the IDF, likely due to the reported loss of around 2,000 fighters since the beginning of the maneuver in Lebanon. Instead of organized combat, Hezbollah has opted for dispersed rocket and mortar attacks from a distance.
Hezbollah has stored its remaining forces and rocket supplies in key villages, further north of where Israel’s ground forces has been operating, suggesting a full clearance may require operations up to the Litani River. The Israeli Air Force continues to strike in the Lebanese Beqaa Valley, targeting Hezbollah’s weapon stockpiles, fuel reserves, and supply routes from Syria, particularly impacting Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for delivering weapons from Iran and her proxies to Lebanon. Broad airstrikes have also targeted command centers in Nabatiyeh, disrupting Hezbollah’s resupply and reinforcement capabilities in the area.
- The Israeli Air Force conducted strikes in the Tyre area, targeting command and control centers of Hezbollah’s “Aziz Unit” and Radwan Forces. Additional strikes were carried out in Lebanese villages in the Beqaa Valley, in the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut, and in the southern city of Nabatiyeh. Airstrikes also hit Hezbollah’s weapons depots in Qusair, Syria. The Israeli government issued a warning to Syria, stating that its support for Hezbollah puts Syrian citizens at risk.
- IDF Division 91 is close to completing the clearance of the village of Kila, a source of anti-tank and rocket fire towards the Israeli northern city of Metula and other communities in the “Galilee Finger” region. Task Force 769 has led this operation, which has resulted in the destruction of hundreds of terror structures and the seizure of an unprecedented amount of weaponry. The seized weapons could have equipped approximately 1,000 fighters from Hezbollah’s Radwan Force for an attack on Kiryat Shmona, the Galilee Finger, and the Hula Valley.
- Western Lebanon Operations: The Alexandroni Brigade completed its mission successfully in western Lebanon, neutralizing dozens of militants, seizing hundreds of weapons, and destroying hundreds of terrorist infrastructures. Soldiers also cleared villages and areas close to the border fence.
- Division 98, along with the Paratroopers Brigade, Yahalom Unit, Battalion 77 of the 7th Armored Brigade, and Shin Bet, discovered the largest tunnel to date in southern Lebanon. The tunnel, carved into a mountain, reached 30 meters deep and extended for 1.5 kilometers with multiple branches and exit points. It contained a vast amount of weaponry, food supplies, and fuel to sustain the fighters for weeks. This tunnel was designed to equip and deploy hundreds of Hezbollah’s Radwan fighters for an attack and was located approximately 5 kilometers from the large Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, likely under the Lebanese village of Raba Al-Talatin. It was ultimately demolished with 400 tons of explosives, triggering earthquake alerts in several northern Israeli towns.
- Strategic Hold: Israel established control over border villages and destroyed significant terrorist infrastructure (estimated by the Washington Post to be 80% of structures along the border and 25% across southern Lebanon).
- Security Zone Creation: Israel has completed the initial phase of maneuvering to establish a buffer zone, ensuring operational control in the area.
- The Israeli Air Force intercepted 7 drones between Thursday and Friday night, with additional drones intercepted near Nahariya and in the Red Sea area. A barrage of 30 rockets hit Carmiel, injuring 9 civilians. Another missile hit the Arab town of Tira, injuring 19 civilians. On October 31st, 7 civilians were killed as a result of Hezbollah attacks. In a farming area near Metula, an Israeli farmer and four Thailand citizens who were agricultural workers were killed, and two civilians were killed near the Krayot area just north of Haifa.
- Over the course of the entire month of October, 100 drones from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and even Saudi Arabia were intercepted.
- A series of drones were launched and intercepted. Iraqi Shiite militias claimed responsibility for multiple attacks, while a new Saudi militia also launched drones toward the Jordan Valley, with interceptions occurring near Eilat.
- Israeli naval commandos from Shayetet 13 have captured a senior member of Hezbollah’s naval force, Imad Amhaz, who was taken to be questioned on Hezbollah’s naval activities. He is considered to be a “significant source of knowledge” in the terror group’s naval force.
International
- Following Israeli legislation banning UNRWA activities, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned Prime Minister Netanyahu in a letter that the decision could have devastating consequences for “Palestinian refugees, with no viable alternatives to provide essential services in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza” despite the fact that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which is the UN agency mandated to aid and protect refugees, forcibly displaced communities, and stateless people, functions all over the world and should be able to provide essential services to any Palestinian refugee as they do for civilian victims of other conflicts.
- Germany is investigating a major espionage scandal involving “Mostafa University” in Berlin, suspected of being a recruitment hub for the Iranian Quds Force. According to U.S. Treasury documents, the university supports Quds Force intelligence activities globally, including the recruitment for foreign militias.
- Following a Hezbollah-launched missile strike that hit the UNIFIL headquarters in the southern Lebanon town of Naqoura, injuring eight Austrian UN peacekeepers, the IDF condemned Hezbollah’s ongoing violations of international law. UNIFIL’s condemnation was much more tame than their condemnation of previous strikes against their positions that UNIFIL attributed to the IDF.
- Afghan national Fawzan Musa Khan was sentenced to 10 years in prison for planning a terror attack on the Israeli embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan. He allegedly plotted to carry out an attack involving explosions and arson, intending to destabilize Azerbaijan.
- In response to Israel’s UNRWA ban, the UK is considering suspending arms sales to Israel. UK lawmakers have criticized Israel’s decision, citing concerns for international law.
- The Paris Commercial Court overturned French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to ban Israeli companies from participating in the upcoming Euronaval exhibition. This is the second time that the French Judiciary has, overturned the French government’s efforts to ostracize Israel for actions it has taken during the war Macron has objected to.
Gaza Strip
Diplomatic
- UN Secretary-General’s Statement on Gaza: António Guterres expressed deep concern over the humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza, urging all parties to protect civilians and humanitarian workers. He emphasized the need to ensure the safe and unhindered work of aid organizations.
- Saudi Arabia’s Stance: Saudi Arabia has condemned Israeli actions in the northern Gaza describing it as “genocide,” asserting that normalization with Israel depends on the establishment of a Palestinian state. At an investment conference, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated that some agreements with Washington are designed as stand-alone, not strictly tied to Israeli normalization.
Hostage Deal
- CIA Director, William Burns met with Egyptian officials to discuss a potential ceasefire in both Lebanon and Gaza, proposing a 28-day truce in exchange for releasing a limited number of hostages.
- Mossad chief David Barnea met in Qatar with CIA Director Burns and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani marking the first round of talks in two months. On Tuesday, the Mossad chief is expected to meet with Egyptian representatives to discuss a proposed 48-hour ceasefire for the release of four Israeli hostages, and the release of Hamas and other security prisoners.
- Hamas reportedly offered to release all hostages in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a condition Israel cannot accept. Khalil al-Hayya rejected Israel’s proposal to release hostages in exchange for the safe passage of Hamas leaders abroad. Hamas continues to aim for its own survival by forming a unity government with Fatah under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority.
Operational
- In Khan Younis, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, responsible for international relations, was eliminated. He was one of the last remaining senior Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip.
- Israeli forces have arrested hundreds of terrorists in Jabalia, as part of its third separate operation in the area. Division 162 has dismantled Hamas’s infrastructure in the northern part of Gaza, directing the population away from danger, further south. The IDF spokesperson announced an expansion of the humanitarian zone to accommodate the newly displaced people from northern Gaza, allowing civilians safe refuge, despite the ongoing operations.
- The Hamas controlled Gaza Health Ministry reported 93 casualties in a single five-story building in Beit Lahia. The IDF maintains that Hamas used the building for its operations and used the civilians as involuntary human shields.
- After the completion of the Kamal Adwan operation (which resulted in 200 enemy fatalities and while capturing 60 more), only the 401st Brigade and Givati Brigade remain active in Jabalia, while Brigade 460 has completed its mission. During the operation, they found terror funds, intelligence documents, weapons, and detained an ambulance driver who revealed Hamas’s use of medical personnel for terror purposes.
- The third battle in Jabalia has seen the elimination of hundreds of terrorists and the capture of approximately 600.
- Guided by intelligence from Military Intelligence and Shin Bet, the Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas command center at the “Salah Al-Din” school in Gaza City.
Domestic Arena
Draft of Ultra-Orthodox
- Major General David Zini, responsible for IDF training, invited the leader of the United Torah Judaism (ultra-orthodox) Party for a tour to demonstrate the army’s efforts to establish a military division compatible with the lifestyle of ultra-Orthodox soldiers.
- Yeshiva students were drafted at recruitment offices across Israel, sparking protests. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Haifa threw stones and bottles at police officers, while seven were arrested in Tel Hashomer military base for disorderly conduct and for assaulting officers.
- In a government meeting, the Deputy Chief of Staff stated that there is a shortage of soldiers, and Haredi recruitment is not only a matter of equality but also an operational necessity. In the coming days, a decision will be made regarding the passing of the draft exemption law, either through direct legislation or the passage of indirect subsidies for daycare centers for Haredi men required to enlist.
Netanyahu’s Speech
In a speech at the graduation ceremony of the IDF Officer training Base, Prime Minister Netanyahu outlined the strategy to end the war, which includes five primary goals focused on dismantling Iran’s capabilities, its proxies, ballistic capabilities, and preventing its nuclear development. Israel will not allow Hamas to regain control in Gaza or Hezbollah to maintain a presence along its northern border. Post-war, Israel aims to return to normalcy from a position of strength, rebuild the economy, and restore areas affected by the conflict. Netanyahu indicated that the campaign could last several more months before Israel will be able to shift the regional geopolitical balance and eliminate immediate threats. This is a update to the stated war aims and the first time that an Israeli Prime Minister openly said that Israel would act anywhere in Iran.
Probe into Alleged Leak of Classified documents to the Foreign Press
Several individuals have been arrested as part of an investigation into the leak of classified documents from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. This leak reportedly jeopardized sensitive information and intelligence sources, impacting Israel’s objectives in the Gaza war. Channel 12 reported that the leaks pertained to a potential hostage deal, with suspects allegedly releasing and distorting Hamas documents acquired by the IDF. These documents detailed Hamas’s strategy in hostage negotiations. The leaks resulted in articles in German and British media, which closely matched Netanyahu’s recent public statements, including claims that Hamas intended to move Israeli hostages out of Gaza through the Philadelphi Corridor.
Over the course of the war, there have been many leaks to the media, but none have resulted in arrests. This could suggest a double standard as these leaks allegedly came from the Prime Minister’s Office and therefore harm the Prime Minister politically, while the other leaks tended to strengthen the positions of those opposing the Netanyahu government. The probe is under a gag order by the court which Netanyahu has aked to remove. This outlines the rift between factions in the military brass and the political echelon.
Other
- The Knesset voted 92-10, without abstentions, to ban all activities of the UNRWA within Israel, declaring the organization illegal. The IDSF has taken part in the efforts to ban UNRWA activity within Israel for the past years and has engaged with decision makers on this issue.
- At the Glilot Junction adjacent to Tel Aviv and on the outskirts of a military base, an Arab-Israeli terrorist drove a truck into civilians at a bus stop, injuring 35 people. One victim later succumbed to injuries, while several others were critically injured.
- The Israeli prosecution has filed an indictment against Asher Benjamin Weiss from Bnei Brak for allegedly surveilling an Israeli nuclear scientist under guidance from Iranian agents, with the intent to assassinate him. Charges include contact with a foreign agent, providing information to the enemy, and obstruction of justice.
Internal IDF Changes
- Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Halevi approved a new regional division to protect Israel’s eastern border. This division will secure Highway 90, the Jordan Valley settlements, the Arava, and will work to prevent arms smuggling from Jordan and infiltration attempts by militants or migrants.
- The Israeli Ministry of Defense signed a 2-billion-shekel contract with Israeli military technology companies Rafael and Elbit to deploy the “Iron Beam” laser defense system in addition to existing batteries, aiming for deployment by the last quarter of 2025.
Iraq and Syria
- The Shiite militia “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq announced plans to double its attacks on Israel during November.
Fallen Soldiers
