Israel Weekly War Summary Week #59 | November 17-November 23 , 2024

Overview

• The ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for allegedly intentionally starving the Gazan population and committing war crimes has been condemned by all sides of Israel’s political sphere as well as both President Biden and President-Elect Trump, alongside countries such as Argentina and Hungary.
• A United Nations Security Council proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, without the condition of hostage release, was supported by 14 of 15 members but vetoed by the U.S.
• Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Defense Minister Israel Katz reassured the U.S. that Israel is not engaging in population starvation or forced displacement in northern Gaza.

• PM Netanyahu proposed significant financial rewards which included $5M per hostage, safe passage to exile for militants and their families for returning hostages to Israel.
• Since the Jabalia operation began, 1,300 militants have been killed. Northern Gaza likely holds 100-200 remaining militants. IDF plans to remain in Jabalia for three months to clear the area, with plans to establish food distribution infrastructure.

• Israel aims to shift food distribution control from Hamas to private American companies, with an estimated $60 million cost for food distribution infrastructure and security.

• Reports indicate U.S. President-elect Trump greenlit Amos Hochstein’s negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Hezbollah attacked UNFIL positions for the third time this week when attempting to launch a rocket at Israel. In the previous attacks UNFIL and UN personnel were injured.

• Spain and the Palestinian Authority convened their inaugural joint ministerial meeting in Madrid, marking a significant step in bilateral relations.
• Chabad emissary Tzvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan citizen, went missing in the UAE: His body was discovered on November 24, 2024, in Abu Dhabi. Israeli authorities have labeled his death as an antisemitic terrorist attack.

International

• Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to coordinate regional resistance efforts.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian Deputy FM Mikhael Bogdanov, and referred to “Zionist aggression” as the catalyst for regional instability and warned of potential conflict expansion.

ICC Decision to Issue Arrest Warrants

The ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for allegedly intentionally starving the Gazan population and committing war crimes has been condemned by all sides of Israel’s political sphere and Israel’s President Isaac Herzog.

The move was also condemned by President Biden and prominent Democratic lawmakers, President-Elect Trump and prominent Republican lawmakers, alongside countries such as Argentina and Hungary.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) condemned Israeli actions, overlooking the October 7th massacre, hostage situations, and Hamas’ deliberate integration into civilian populations. A warrant was issued against the eliminated Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, who was killed in an IDF strike.

Reactions

• While some European countries including the Czech Republic and Hungary criticized the ruling, the majority including the UK, France, Canada, Italy and others expressed that they would comply with the ruling. The ruling ignored the October 7 massacre itself; the hostage crisis; the deliberate embedding of terror factions within civilian populations; the millions of warnings that the IDF as communicated to Gaza civilians through SMS, flyers, phone calls and other means; the protection that the IDF provided against Hamas terrorists trying to kill Gazan civilians fleeing the battlefield; and even the delivery of humanitarian aid during wartime, which was presented as merely an effort to “appease” the international community.
• Netanyahu strongly condemned the decision, labeling it antisemitic and undermining the Court as the modern “Dreifus Trial”. He highlighted Israel’s humanitarian efforts, such as a polio vaccination campaign covering 97% of Gaza’s population. Netanyahu declared that the ICC has lost its legitimacy, thanked U.S. lawmakers for standing with Israel, and stated that this ruling would not deter Israel from continuing its fight.
• President Joe Biden labeled the ICC’s action as “outrageous,” emphasizing that the court lacks jurisdiction over this matter.
• White House National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby denounced the ICC’s decision and questioned its jurisdiction and procedural errors.
• In Congress, there was bipartisan condemnation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) described the ICC’s decision as “outrageous, unlawful, and dangerous,” and announced plans to sanction the court. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) also criticized the ICC’s move, asserting that it undermines Israel’s right to self-defense.
• US President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. National Security Advisor Rep. Michael Waltzsignaled a much more aggressive future American response as he criticized the ICC as unreliable and accused it of antisemitism and promised a strong response in January.

European Responses:

• EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell: Stated the decision was not political and must be respected.
• UK, France, and Canada: Announced their intent to comply with the ICC ruling.
• Argentina: President Javier Mileiopposed the ICC decision: Emphasized Israel’s legitimate right to self-defense. Expressed solidarity with Israel against repeated terror attacks.

Gaza Strip

Diplomatic

• Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Defense Minister Israel Katz reassured the U.S. that Israel is not engaging in population starvation or forced displacement in northern Gaza, acknowledging challenges in fully implementing Israeli military plans.
• A United Nations Security Council proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, without the condition of hostage release, was supported by 14 of 15 members but vetoed by the U.S. S. Deputy Ambassador to the U.N., Robert Wood, explained that the veto was due to the resolution’s failure to explicitly link the ceasefire to the immediate release of hostages taken by Hamas. Wood stated that an unconditional ceasefire would send a dangerous message to Hamas. This veto marked the fourth time the U.S. had blocked a Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza since the conflict began.

Efforts to Release Hostages

• Hamas reportedly proposed a 42-day ceasefire and the release of humanitarian-status hostages in exchange for Israeli concessions, though specifics remain unclear.
• Khalil al-Hayya, acting chief of Hamas in Gaza, stated that the group would not agree to a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Israel unless the ongoing conflict ceases.
• PM Netanyahu hinted at the possibility of releasing dozens of hostages soon.
• Shin Bet, Mossad, IDF leadership, and Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon discussed a new framework for a hostage deal, pending government approval.
• PM Netanyahu proposed significant financial rewards which included $5M per hostage, safe passage to exile for militants and their families for returning hostages to Israel.

Operational

Jabalia Operation

• IDF uncovered and neutralized 300 booby-trapped structures containing hundreds of explosive devices. These traps caused significant casualties among IDF forces.
• The Kfir Combat Team, including the Nachshon and Shimshon Battalions, has eliminated dozens of militants and destroyed over 100 terror infrastructures since joining the fight in Jabalia and Beit Lahia.
• Since the Jabalia operation began, 1,300 militants have been killed. Northern Gaza likely holds 100-200 remaining militants. IDF plans to remain in Jabalia for three months to clear the area, with plans to establish food distribution infrastructure.
• The Israeli Air Force is conducting extensive strikes on targets in Beit Lahia and Sheikh Radwan.
• The Jordanian Air Force delivered 7 tons of humanitarian aid to Al-Qarara in eastern Khan Yunis, intended for the UN World Food Program.
• Bakeries in Deir al-Balah resumed operations after supplies were delivered through the Kerem Shalom crossing.

Food Distribution in Gaza

• Palestinian armed groups seized 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks organized by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and the World Food Programme (WFP) entering Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing. The attackers threw grenades and held truck drivers at gunpoint, forcing them to unload their cargo. A clash ensued between Hamas, its supporting clans, and the hijackers, resulting in 20+ deaths and numerous injuries, highlighting increasing anarchy, the huge value that Palestinian terrorists ascribe to controlling the flow of humanitarian aid, and the inability of the international community to distribute aid to Gazans without the control of the IDF.

Hamas and allied terror factions have established a joint defense force to fight anyone challenging their control over food distribution. This has led to increased violence with Hamas executing the suspected perpetrators.

Basic food prices have skyrocketed: Sacks of flour are now selling for $100 (previously $10-15), 1 kg of powdered milk: $75 shekels (previously $8 shekels).

Bakeries shut down due to looting, signaling escalating anarchy and Hamas’ loss of governance.

• Israel aims to shift food distribution control from Hamas to private American companies, with an estimated $60 million cost for food distribution infrastructure and security. This would remove from Hamas their largest point of leverage over the population- its control of food. If Israel’s plan to completely exclude them from control over the aid, this would substantially degrade their ability to control Gazan society and would hasten the destruction of their ability to govern in Gaza.

PM Netanyahu’s Statements from Gaza Situation Assessment

• For the second time since the start of the war Prime Minister Netanyahu held a situational assessment in Gaza with the heads of the security services including Security Minister Katz, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. They visited the Netzarim Corridor in Gaza to evaluate the progress of military operations. Netanyahu declared Hamas will no longer govern Gaza:
  • Military capabilities are being dismantled.
  • Focus now shifting to dismantling Hamas’ governance.
• Asserted Hamas operatives harming hostages would be relentlessly pursued.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

Lebanon-Israel Negotiations:

• Lebanon demands Israel’s complete withdrawal and the release of Hezbollah prisoners immediately after a ceasefire.
• Israel insists on a 60-day timeline post-ceasefire to clear occupied areas and monitor ceasefire compliance and operation freedom in Lebanon if Hezbollah does not comply.

Currently the proposed framework by US envoy, Hochstein, includes:

• A 60-day trial ceasefire period during which Hezbollah would retreat north of the Litani River.
• At the end of this period, the IDF would withdraw from Lebanon.
• Implementation overseen by the U.S., UK, Germany, France, and UN mechanisms under Resolution 1701.
• Israel retains the right to intervene if the agreement is violated.
• PM Najib Mikati rejected granting operational freedom to the IDF in southern Lebanon, insisting Lebanon alone would implement Resolution 1701.

Analysis: Israel’s immediate objective is to deepen its offensive in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and maintaining operational freedom. Israel’s interest is in rejecting ceasefire agreements that limit its post-conflict freedom to act in Lebanon and any ability of Hezbollah to recover. If Israel degrades Hezbollah sufficiently it could potentially bring the Abraham accords country into a future agreement which include forced from these countries to oversee the peacekeeping operations and also have Lebanon join the accords in a comprehensive agreement.

• Iran’s special envoy, Ali Larijani, visited Beirut and endorsed efforts to reach a U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He conveyed a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, indicating support for Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. This move aims to preserve Hezbollah’s post-war influence, with Iran pledging assistance in the group’s reconstruction efforts.
• Reports indicate U.S. President-elect Trump greenlit Amos Hochstein’s negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Hezbollah’s Qassem Naim insisted on maintaining resistance while preserving the group’s political power in Lebanon post-conflict.
• Israeli minister Ron Dermer suggested lifting sanctions on Russian and Syrian firms if Russia and Assad halt arms smuggling into Lebanon. This proposal could weaken Sunni influence in Syria, potentially spurring a new Sunni revolt.  Can you add anything more to explain how this would weaken the Sunni’s?
• Iranian Defense Minister met Syrian counterparts in Damascus to coordinate resistance efforts and bolster Hezbollah’s support in Lebanon.

Operational

• IDF forces advanced northward toward the Christian village of Deir Mimas near the Litani River, capturing parts of the local monastery and instructing residents to remain in their homes.
• Control of parts of the Nabatiyeh-Marjayoun road has effectively blocked Hezbollah reinforcements in the Khasbaya sector, with Al-Khiam nearly encircled.
• Unit 7, operating under Division 98, is leading the assault and targeting fortified Hezbollah positions, including anti-tank and sniper outposts.
• The capture of Al-Khiam is expected to facilitate deeper penetration into southern Lebanon toward key locations like Nabatiyeh and Marjayoun. Hezbollah has launched multiple rocket and mortar attacks, including anti-tank fire, against advancing IDF forces.
• The Israeli Air Force killed the new medium-range rocket commander (Ali Tawfiq Dweiq) in southern Lebanon, responsible for launching 300 rocket barrages into Israel.
• Israel reportedly targeted Mohammed Haidar (A.K.A. Abu Ali Haidar), Hezbollah’s de facto chief of staff.
• A wave of airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Beirut’s Dahiya district and Tyre, targeting command centers, intelligence facilities, and rocket-launching units. These operations have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s military capabilities without major civilian casualties.  Most residents of Tyre have fled north, transforming the city into a fully militarized target.
• Hezbollah attacked UNFIL positions for the third time this week when attempting to launch a rocket at Israel. In the previous attacks UNFIL and UN personnel were injured.
• Israel’s surgical strikes, taking out buildings with no civilian casualties have allowed to attenuate local opposition to Israel. They have garnered some local support from Lebanon’s non-Shiite communities, potentially fostering a consensus against Hezbollah. Despite public opinion shifting against Hezbollah, it hasn’t weakened enough for broad consensus against the terrorist group.
• Hezbollah’s rate of attacks increased to around 15-20 attacks a day and using Nasser missiles capable of carrying a warhead of 140 Kgs of explosives with arrange of 150 Km.
• Major (res) Ze’ev Hanoch “Zabo” Ehrlich (70), an archaeology enthusiast, entered Lebanon under unauthorized circumstances, leading to his death. IDF Chief of Staff has ordered an inquiry into operational discipline, though details remain undisclosed.
• A rocket barrage from Hezbollah killed a civilian in Nahariya in his 30s.
• A barrage of over 100 rockets injured 10 civilians in Shefa-‘Amr and killed a 50-year-old woman in a protected shelter.
• Rockets hitting central Israel caused significant damage in Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak, injuring three individuals and sparking a fire.
• Israeli airstrikes on Sunday eliminated Hezbollah’s coastal operations commander and its anti-tank unit leader, reducing its rocket launch capabilities.

Judea and Samaria

• Defense Minister Israel Katz revoked the Shin Bet’s ability to arrest Jewish individuals using administrative orders.
• A 48-hour operation in Jenin resulted in the elimination of 9 militants, including 3 killed in an airstrike targeting vehicles carrying weaponry. Ten weapons were seized, and several wanted individuals were arrested.
• The Shin Bet arrested a three-member terror cell planning to assassinate National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his son. The group acquired the explosive devices and monitored Ben Gvir’s movements and security arrangements.

Spain-Palestinian Authority Cooperation:

On November 21, 2024, Spain and the Palestinian Authority convened their inaugural joint ministerial meeting in Madrid, marking a significant step in bilateral relations. During this meeting, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa signed four Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) aimed at enhancing cooperation in the following areas:

1. Labor: Initiatives to improve employment opportunities and labor rights.
2. Economy: Measures to boost economic development and trade relations.
3. Education: Programs to enhance educational systems and opportunities.
4. Agriculture: Projects to advance agricultural practices and food security.
5. Youth: Efforts to support youth development, including education, employment, and civic engagement.

• Palestinian PM Mohammed Mustafa who met with Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez expressed gratitude for Spanish solidarity

Turkey

• The Shin Bet Chief [name] visited Turkey, meeting its defense minister to advance a hostage deal.
• S. imposed sanctions on six Hamas officials and anyone granting them asylum, including three in Turkey.
• Pressure on Hamas leadership abroad could facilitate a hostage exchange under Israeli terms.

Domestic

• A conference at Glilot Base trained 200 candidates for the “Hashmonaim” ultra-Orthodox combat reserve brigade, including preparations for their spouses ahead of a 6-month training period.
• CENTCOM Commander General Michael Erik Kurillavisited Israel as a guest of IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. A joint assessment was held with Israel’s Operations Directorate and Northern Command focused on strategic and security issues, with an emphasis on Lebanon.
• Defense Minister Israel Katzimposed sanctions on 24 key clients of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial association linked to Hezbollah.

The association was previously designated as a terror organization.

These clients deposited significant sums that funded Hezbollah’s activities, including:

• Arms purchases.
• Loans and salaries for members of the terror organization.

Iraq and Syria

• Iraqi Shiite militias claimed to have launched a drone attack.
• Iraqi PM Al-Sudani ordered security forces to prevent further missile launches and to act against militias.
• Israel warned Iraq, via the U.S., of potential direct Israeli strikes on Iraqi territory if militia activity against Israel persists.
• Iraqi Shiite militias threatened full-scale retaliation, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, if Israel targets them.
• A S. delegation is expected to mediate direct talks between Iraqi and Iranian representatives in Baghdad ,to discuss ending the war.
• Foreign Minister Gideon Saar wrote a letter to the UN security council expressing concern over the escalation from Iraq: 31 attacks in September, 77 in October, 58 in November, dozens of cruise missiles launched since October. Iraqi PM Al-Sudani dismissed these claims, framing them as Israeli pretexts for an attack.

Iran

• Iran is wary of losing its influence on Lebanon following setbacks in Gaza. The possibility of another Israeli offensive threatens Iranian-aligned proxies and Tehran’s regional position. Iran has signaled that it would want to pursue a deal in Lebanon to preserve its proxy and thereby its regional influence.

Nuclear Developments

• Iran has increased its uranium enrichment to 60%, amassing 182.3 kg of enriched uranium. This quantity is sufficient to manufacture approximately 16 nuclear bombs, should Iran decide to further enrich the uranium to weapons-grade levels (90% enrichment). The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that, with its current capabilities, Iran could produce these weapons within six months. This timeline accounts for the technical processes required to enrich uranium from 60% to 90%, as well as the assembly of nuclear devices. Additionally, Iran has installed 32 new centrifuges at its Fordow and Natanz facilities, which were previously inactive, potentially enhancing its enrichment capacity.
• Expedited activities are taking place at the same time as countries like France, UK and Germany have influenced the IAEA’s position and prompted it to issue condemnations and demands for a full nuclear report by spring 2025. They have demanded that Iran dismantle all uranium enriched to 60%, and have rejected Iran’s proposed compromise that will keep them on the threshold of being able to manufacture nuclear weapons.
• The current joint action could severely harm Iran’s economy and provide Israel with increased legitimacy to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities with the cooperation of a US led coalition.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who also serves as the Special Representative of the Russian President for the Middle East and Africa, recently met Iranian and Yemeni representatives in Tehran to discuss the war in Gaza, the situation in Lebanon, gas production collaboration with Gazprom in Iran, and efforts to stabilize Yemen. The meeting included Ali Asghar Khaji, Senior Advisor to Iran’s Foreign Minister on Special Political Affairs, and a Yemeni delegation led by Mohammed Abdul-Salam, the spokesman for the Houthis).

Recent reports indicate that Russia has recruited Houthi fighters for its war in Ukraine. This underscores the need for a comprehensive foreign policy as Russia strengthens its ties with the Iranian axis as entanglement of Iran and Russia in two different theaters is symbiotic.

Global Jihad

Chabad emissary Tzvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan citizen, went missing in the UAE:  His body was discovered on November 24, 2024, in Abu Dhabi. Israeli authorities have labeled his death as an antisemitic terrorist attack. While the exact perpetrators remain unidentified, there is speculation about Iranian involvement.

Yemen

• US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin highlighted shifting dynamics between Iran and the Houthis, describing them as equal partners rather than subordinates.

This may be a sign that Iran is perceived by its allies as having had its capabilities significantly degraded. Iran’s perceived lack of support for its allies in Gaza and Lebanon has potentially weakened its standing among resistance factions.

• The U.S. remains committed to ensuring freedom of navigation alongside its allies.

Fallen Soldiers